WarSclerotic

Israelis Seen Unprepared for Attack on Homeland – WSJ.com.

Officials Fear Residents Need Better Access to Bomb Shelters and Gas Masks in the Event of Attack

By JOSHUA MITNICK

TEL AVIV—Israeli leaders have been talking for months about attacking Iran if it continues to develop its nuclear capacity. But there is anxiety about preparedness for war on the home front, with public officials fretting that millions of Israelis lack immediate access to bomb shelters or gas masks.

Israeli military officers say Iran and its allies in Lebanon and Gaza have tens of thousands of rockets that can reach anywhere in the Jewish state—indicating that a conflict would put all Israeli civilians on the front line for the first time since the 1991 Gulf War.

“The situation is terrible. People are really worried,” said Shlomo Maslawy, a Tel Aviv Council member who complained about a shortage of public shelters in the city’s poorer neighborhoods. “Who will gain entry to the shelters? If something happens, there will be a war between the residents.”

Israel believes its offense its best defense, said Meir Elran, a fellow at Tel Aviv University’s Institute for National Security Studies. Rather than invest in bomb shelters, the government has devoted most of its military budgets to attack and deterrence capabilities.

The possibility that a conflict could spark panic at home is liable to further ratchet up pressure on Israeli military planners and political leaders to quickly escalate Israeli attacks to achieve a quick and decisive victory, Mr. Elran added.

Israeli leaders have consistently said they would attack Iran to prevent it from developing a nuclear weapon, but have maintained a strategic ambiguity about what would trigger an attack.

On Thursday, Defense Minister Ehud Barak, after meeting Vice Adm. James Winnefield, vice chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the “clock is ticking at a different pace” for the U.S. and Israel.

“The next war will be different than all the previous wars because the home front will be on the front line,” said Zeev Bielsky, the head of the parliament’s subcommittee on home-front preparedness. “We have to provide ways and means for people to hide and be more secure.”

Of Israel’s 7.8 million people, 20% don’t have access to nearby public shelters, said Nissan Zeevi, a spokesman for the minister for Home Front Preparedness.

Only 45% of the population has suitable gas masks, according to the Israeli military. The army has quietly been distributing kits for months at home-improvement retailers.

The shortfall is in line with government plans; some 60% of Israelis will have gas masks by next year, Mr. Zeevisaid—adding that the chances of chemical attack are “very low.”

While the supply of gas masks may not be critical because leaders don’t expect a chemical attack, citizens will still expect to be provided with them, Mr. Elran said.

“If nonconventional weapons are used, it’s going to be total chaos and demoralization,” he said. The lack of gas masks “has cast a major shadow on the seriousness of the decision-making process as far as the home front is concerned.”

Israel’s public shelters were built in the 1950s and 1960s to protect city residents from air raids rather than medium- and long-range missiles. Many of those shelters are being used as art studios, synagogues and clubs for teenagers.

Tel Aviv’s 240 public shelters could be unlocked and cleared out for emergency use within 24 hours, city officials said.

The city also plans to open up underground parking decks as shelters. Such facilities might not be sufficient for an initial, unexpected barrage, but would help if hostilities dragged on.

There is no sign of public panic in Tel Aviv. Cafes and restaurants are full, and there has been no rush to stock up on supplies at supermarkets.

“We are going to sit in our apartment and shake from fear,” quipped Shiri Menda, a resident of central Tel Aviv, when asked about her family’s contingency plan for war. “The nearest shelter is in the park, but to the best of my knowledge the shelter isn’t ready or even unlocked.”

Underlying concerns is the lingering memory of 2006, when emergency services stopped functioning during a monthlong war with Hezbollah, Iran’s Lebanese ally, that subjected northern Israeli cities to daily barrages of rockets.

Since then, Israel’s government has made progress in preparing emergency responders. Israel has also deployed batteries of rocket interceptors designed to knock down the short- and medium-range rockets employed by Hezbollah.

In response to a local media report this year raising concerns about home-front preparedness, the Prime Minister’s office said his administration also had established a special ministry to deal with the matter and devoted more resources to Israel’s agency for national emergencies.

Despite the progress, Israel’s fire service is underfunded and many municipalities could be overwhelmed by attacks, the state comptroller said last year.

The recent reassignment of Israel’s former Minister for Homeland Defense, Matan Vilnai, as ambassador to China spurred more cynicism that Israel isn’t ready.

“If we are going to have a war, why do you send your deputy minister in charge of home front to China,” said Yossi Melman, the co-author of “Spies Against Armageddon,” a book about Israel’s intelligence agencies. “There are jokes that he is running away.”

Many Israelis said they remain hopeful that the war chatter is mostly bluster and that the government won’t order a lone strike.

“I’m not buying anything or planning anything. I’ve served in three wars, and I’m not afraid,” said Meir Solshan, owner of a Tel Aviv dry-cleaning business. “There won’t be an Israel bombing. We’re waiting for the U.S.”

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