WarSclerotic

This is supposed to be a column about the Iranian nuclear program, Israel’s possible response and how the issue is playing out in relations between Israel and the United States. If I were to write with any certainty about the issue, the rest of this space would be blank.

But I guess that’s the point. No one, with the exception of a few top leaders in Jerusalem, Washington and Iran, really knows what is going on.

Israel’s current military leadership does not speak out on such matters. They provide assessments to the government on options, but ultimately it is the elected leadership that decides.

The media frenzy in Israel over the issue has been amazing, however. Almost every day another former intelligence or defense official comes out publicly, almost always in opposition to Israel’s acting alone to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities. This is countered by statements by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak underlining Israel’s resolve if Iran does not cease its nuclear program.

At least one Iranian soldier remains unfazed. Iran’s Tehran Times quoted an Islamic Revolution Guard Corps commander, Amir Ali Hajizadeh, as saying that an attack would provide the perfect pretext to destroy Israel. The “best opportunity,” the Iranian said, “will be provided for the disappearance of this fake regime from the scene of the world and hurling it into the dustbin of history.”

Back to reality, however. The situation is tremendously complicated by timing issues. The Israeli government is determined to stop the Iranian nuclear weapons program before it gets “breakout capability,” meaning before Iran can quickly make that last sprint to the finish line.

The timing is also complicated by Israel’s military capabilities, which are more limited than America’s. The United States has more powerful bunker-busting bombs that could do more to incapacitate underground nuclear facilities. As a result, the United States has the luxury of waiting longer to act against the Iranians than Israel would alone.

Israel’s Channel 10 television reported last week that plans are being considered that would have the United States assure Israel that the U.S. would strike Iran in June if necessary if Israel held off an earlier attack on its own. But if potential action against Iran is deferred until next year, who will be president of the United States? And is a U.S. commitment to take care of the Iranian nuclear program, which threatens not just Israel but the West as a whole, one that Israel can count on going into a second Obama administration or a first Romney one?

It could be that the urgent rhetorical tone of Israel’s leadership is simply an attempt to keep up the pressure on Iran to back down. Or maybe Israel really does intend to strike Iran in the relatively near future. The only certainty in all this is uncertainty.