WarSclerotic

Israel Hayom | United front against Iran.

The three parleys between the P5+1 nations and Iran on the nuclear issue have so far been fruitless.

The talks, which have been going on for two months, have taken place in Istanbul, Baghdad, and Moscow. In this sense it seems the stalling tactics which Iran has employed for nearly a decade are continuing to succeed. The international community continues to take a naive stance on the issue, and demonstrates its helplessness before Iran’s continuing nuclearization.

However there have been some interesting developments in the past few months, some which have the potential to yield significant results in the ongoing negotiations. First, the current dynamic has taken the form a sort of arm wrestle, two opponents both eager to pin the other down, and is a different picture than before. Back then the international community’s resolve was in question, and Iran enjoyed a clear advantage over the West in its determined and unwavering stance; the nations opposed it were not united and not willing to adopt harsh sanctions at the expense of their own economies.

Things changed at the onset of 2012. The critical decision to embargo Iranian oil and level “crippling” sanctions against Iran’s central bank have caused the regime a great deal of pain and have even damaged it. While the decision to use the sanction was not made in the U.N. Security Council, the talks between the five permanent members of the council and Germany yielded a united front: Western nations refused Iran’s pleas to lessen the sanctions. The aforementioned nations then demanded concrete steps to be taken by Iran regarding its nuclear program. There were no reports of divisions among the six countries, which had happened before and served to weaken their position while emboldening Iran’s.

One should note that the tendency for many Israelis to think the newfound vigor against Iran is due to Israeli pressure and a will to prevent an Israeli airstrike is a bit exaggerated. The international push is part of its own dynamic, and from a historical perspective one can see that the U.S.’s determination grew as Iran continued down its path and refused to take negotiations seriously. The stinging International Atomic Energy Agency report in November 2011 brought about almost an immediate wave of sanctions from the U.S. and Europe, without any connection to Israel’s threats.

Further, despite the obsession with the question whether Israel will attack or not, one should pay attention to the level of communication and coordination between Israel and the U.S. It is a message to Iran — Israel and the U.S. are very close in their stances. Perhaps this is nothing new for Iran, which in any case pairs the two together, but when coordination extends to Russia as well things become a little less clear and definitely less convenient for Iran. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Israel is sure to raise more alarming questions in Iran.

Let us not be confused however, Iran has not changed course with regards to becoming a nuclear power, but it would be a mistake to say that the sanctions have not done anything only because we haven’t reached the desired outcome.

The intensification of the sanctions have brought Iran to the negotiating table in a different manner than before. The new dynamic will pit to the two sides head to head to see who blinks first. The pressure must be kept on Iran and even increased; the international community cannot blink first.

The writer of this op-ed is a Senior Research Fellow and Director, Arms Control and Regional Security Program at the Institute for National Security Studies.

This entry was posted on June 26, 2012 at 1:56 PM and is filed under Uncategorized. You can subscribe via RSS 2.0 feed to this post's comments. You can comment below, or link to this permanent URL from your own site.