WarSclerotic

( Comment from Blimp – JW )

On 19th June, J.W. printed a very interesting piece entitled : “A Nuclear EMP attack on Iran may be the only option left for Israel.” Here are some further thoughts:
There may be no other choice for Israel.
As a defence and geopolitical analyst in the UK, this subject holds particular interest for me, my colleagues and those we advise. In February 2012, we came to very much the same conclusion as the article of the 19th. The logic seems to go something like this:
Iran, by playing the international community along in their usual manner, has gained valuable time in continuing uranium enrichment, protecting production facilities and developing offensive capabilities. Iran is already a considerable threat to Israel and the rest of the free world but will become even more of a threat if not stopped.
President Obama, despite manoeuvring considerable military assets in the region and making some very fine speeches, has not actually done anything to stop the Iranians and still thinks that sanctions, meetings and talks will solve the problem. They will not, in our view.
Thus Israel is faced with the unappetising choice either of letting Iran become even more of an existential threat, or trusting the US to protect them, or stopping Iran. I believe that Israel cannot rely on Obama, who would wring his hands and make a bellicose speech if Iran attacked Israel, but by then it would be too late. Israel cannot allow Iran to become more of a threat, so it has to stop Iran.
If it has to stop Iran and go alone, then our own assessment is that tactical nuclear weapons will indeed be needed to create the ground shock to reach the deepest bunkers. A low level EMP strike, in addition, would enable Israel to carry out its mission, reduce losses and limit retaliation. A blast at around 50kms high would knock out everything electronic within a radius of around 750 kms.
We have argued for a number of years now, sometimes at very high levels, that appeasement of Iran will not work. As a result, if the Free World does nothing, then Israel, not by choice but by necessity, may have to use these weapons. We argue that by appeasing Iran, world leaders have thus brought the world closer to its first nuclear war and to the great danger of proliferation in the Middle East and elsewhere.
We can understand only too well that Israel, with its history, will not allow its people yet again to be slaughtered. We can understand, as Gentiles, only too well, the phrase: “Never again!”
I should make it very clear that we are not giving an opinion on whether Israel should use these weapons. That is a matter for the Israelis alone and we are not so presumptuous as to think our opinion should even be considered by Israelis anyway, but the hard, cold logic of the situation is interpreted by us as arriving at a point where this could be the least worst option, from the Israeli viewpoint, if international, and particularly US, inaction leaves no other alternative.
Israeli nuclear and military doctrine would appear to allow the use of such weapons if the country is mortally threatened and we believe also that aircraft were armed and made ready with nuclear weapons during both the Yom Kippur War and the First Iraqui War, although never used. There is apparently a precedent therefore.
Of course bien pensants everywhere will condemn Israel if they attack, as they always do, but that great man, General Moshe Dayan, once said: “Israel must be like a mad dog, too dangerous to bother.” He made a good point.

What if the Iranians get there first?
Would you mind now if I turned this argument on its head and considered the proposition from another direction?

What is the threat of Iran developing or acquiring and then using such a weapon?

This is something that, as analysts, we have been considering for some time. We think it is a real threat. We think it is a greater threat than a nuclear attack using the type of warhead that, until now, we have considered the primary threat.

A traditional nuclear bomb will destroy a city. An EMP device can destroy a country, if exploded at high altitude. That country could be Israel, it could be my country; Great Britain, it could be America.

We believe that that the Iranians are only too well aware of just what devastation this mighty weapon could deliver; a true bringer of Armageddon. It is one of the reasons why we, as rather unimportant and inconsequential analysts, are with you, our Israeli friends, in insisting to those in power in the West that Iran must not be allowed to obtain nuclear weapon capability or use any weapons that they may have already acquired. (We think there are indications that the Iranians may already have acquired at least two Soviet era nuclear devices when the USSR broke up.)

What is the logic behind our concern on EMP devices in Iranian hands?

It arises from the intelligence reports, mostly in the public domain, regarding Iranian actions and statements. Let me give you some examples to support our case:

1. In May 2005, Jane’s Missiles and Rockets told us that recent missile tests by Iran may have been part of the development of an Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) warhead. We believe they were just that. Jane’s is a very reliable source.
2. It has separately been reported that the Iranian Revolutionary Guards have successfully tested a ballistic missile from a ship in the Caspian Sea that would be EMP capable.
3. The Iranian Navy is also armed with ballistic missiles, which could fire an EMP missile, we are told.
4. High altitude triggers are being developed by the Iranians, according to usually reliable sources. These would be used in EMP devices.
5. Iranian military handbooks are reported to already point out the benefits of such EMP attacks.
6. Iranian Rear Admiral Ali Fadavi, speaking on 29.4.2012 in Yazd, Iran, said that : “The power of our naval forces is such that we have a presence in all the waters of the world and, if needed, we can move to within three miles of New York.”

That would be an ideal position from which to launch an EMP device. It is now well known how such a device could be concealed within a shipping container and launched at its target country from that country’s own territorial waters. It does not need to be particularly accurate either.

So, it appears to us that the Iranians are and have been actively developing such devices and we infer from Admiral Fadavi’s comments that they have targets in mind. In particular, one target that should concentrate President Obama’s mind, we would have thought.

Therefore perhaps another question that should be asked is: “Can we let Iran obtain, retain or develop EMP weapons?”

We believe the answer to that question is a firm “NO!” Many in Israel would, we think, agree with us.

Not only would repeated statements from the Iranian Theocracy lead us to believe that they are serious in their intention to eliminate Israel, and attack the West, but the God like power, given by EMP, to reduce advanced societies to the way of life of the nineteenth century would appeal to every mad despot on the planet, should the Iranians be allowed to continue. Every despot would want his own EMP weapon.

It is sad that the West is not standing at Israel’s shoulder to prevent Iran creating Mayhem. It is sad that Israel must stand alone for the moment, perhaps hopeful that President Obama’s soaring rhetoric will mean that the US will actually support Israel again instead of handicapping her.

I have said to JW previously that, at this moment in history, Israel seems to me to be comparable with Leonidas and his Spartans, standing there firm, brave and defiant, ready to take on the threat from a new Persia under a new Xerxes, who this time seeks to establish a world-wide Caliphate.

Leonidas and his men probably saved the West from Persian conquest. Israel may go down in history as having carried out a similar service to the world.

I wish you well.

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