A Nuclear EMP attack on Iran might be the only option left for Israel.
Israel now finds itself being slowly painted into a corner. The negotiations that ended last week between Iran and the 5 + 1 nations (the permanent UN Security Council members: Britain, China, France, Russia, the United States plus Germany), simply resulted in a plan to talk, talk, talk and then talk again in Moscow on June 19th.
“For Israel, every day spent talking, is one day that Iran moves closer to assembling a nuclear weapon.”
The discussions are going quite well for Iran. The longer they can hold off any real decisions from the 5 + 1 nations, the more time they purchase for their nuclear weapon program. Iran justifiably believes that the longer they can prolong these negotiations, the less they have to fear from an attack from Israel or the United States.
Sadly, Israel must now begin to accept that there will not be a U.S. coordinated conventional military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. There is zero willingness from the Obama administration to become involved in another Middle-East conflict prior to the November, 2012, presidential elections. The prevailing sentiment from the Obama administration and America’s main-stream-media indicates that the United States just might be willing to deal with a nuclear armed Iran.
“Of course, American politicians are much further away from Iran than is Israel.”
The recent disclosure by the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Administration) that Iran’s uranium enrichment measurement of 27% strongly indicates that Iran has proceeded well beyond their newly proclaimed nuclear enrichment goal of 20%. Actually, an atmospheric measurement of 27% uranium enrichment is a measurement of the average detectable uranium in the air at the nuclear material production site. This indicates uranium enrichment well above 27%. Just a couple of years ago Iran declared they would only enrich uranium to 3.5%.
“The Iranians are well on their way to producing uranium that can only be intended for use in nuclear weapons.”
The idea that Israel can mount an effective air assault on Iran lasting several weeks without the support of the United States is, at best, wishful-thinking. A conventional air assault by Israel on the highly defended Iranian Nuclear Facilities would require several weeks of sorties by multiple squadrons of Israel’s elite aviators. It is doubtful that the results would be equal to the cost.
At the onset of an air assault upon Iran by Israel, most neighbors of Israel will renew age-old hostilities. A re-armed Hezbollah in Lebanon would no doubt renew missile attacks onto northern and central Israel. Syria would willingly appreciate the distraction from killing its own citizens and turn its population against Israel. And, a newly destabilized and radicalized Islamist Egypt would spring to the call of a new jihad against Israel.
“If it were just the next-door neighbors that Israel needed to worry about, a conventional air assault against Iran just might be managed by Israel alone.”
Unfortunately, the Russians will not sit idly by while Iran gets hammered by the Israelis. Not only are the Iranians (and the Syrians) allies of Russia, the Russians have been quite vocal about NATO sticking its nose into nations where it doesn’t belong.
Let’s not forget that Russia’s Putin and Medvedev were very loud with their objections to NATO’s air support of the Libyan Islamist overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi’s government. They were offended that NATO would assist a Radical Islamist movement in the overthrow of a legitimate, United Nation’s recognized government.
In late 2011, as the Syrian Islamist anti-government uprising began to gather international attention, the Russians began tactical and strategic maneuvers which would ensure that they would be a major decision maker in what might happen in Syria or, more important, to Syria.
The Syrians now garrison Moscow’s growing Mediterranean fleet in their port of Tartus. The Mig 29’s that were dispatched to Syrian Military Bases from the decks of the Russian Aircraft Carrier “Admiral Kuznetsov” in January, 2012, continue to provide air cover over Syrian cities in support of the Assad Regime’s crack-down on the Islamist anti-government forces. The country of Syria is located between Israel and Iran. In order for Israel to fly directly to Iran, they must fly over Syria. The Russian presence in Syria will continue to complicate any Israeli response to the Iranian Nuclear Development Program.
Without United States assistance, an Israeli air assault on Iranian Nuclear Facilities using conventional bunker busting bombs would stretch Israel’s logistics beyond their ability to continue the campaign to a successful conclusion.
“Iran has prepared for this war for thirty-three years.”
Iran’s nuclear production facilities are designed to withstand conventional bombing from aircraft. It is now strongly suspected that many of the Iranian Nuclear Development Facilities have been built underground at depths beyond the reach of advanced conventional weapons such as “Bunker-Busting” missiles or bombs.
”Israel has never admitted that they possess nuclear weapons.”
Assuming that they actually have an adequate number of nuclear weapons, Israel could attack each of Iran’s numerous hardened nuclear facilities with ground detonation nuclear warheads. The result from this nuclear attack would be the total destruction of each Iranian production facility. Unfortunately, this option would also result in massive human, environmental and atmospheric devastation. Not to mention the world-wide condemnation that would be leveled against Israel following such an attack.
“There is another option for Israel.”
It has long been accepted that they possess nuclear tipped ballistic missiles. The Israelis are technologically adept and it would not be difficult for them to configure a nuclear warhead enhanced to deliver a devastating EMP (ElectroMagnetic Pulse) to the regions of Iran involved in nuclear development.
If detonated at the proper altitude above Iran, the pulse would largely affect only those areas of Iran where nuclear development facilities were located. An unfortunate side-effect of the EMP attack is that it would knock-out the entire Iranian electric grid.
“Iran would be left without electric power.”
A high-altitude nuclear EMP (HEMP) attack over Iran would produce no immediate human casualties, no radiation sickness, and no blast damage. It would leave no dramatic physical evidence that a nuclear attack had occurred.
“Israel could claim, No Human Harm.”
Yet, the future of Iranian nuclear weapon development would, thankfully, be eliminated for a very, very long time. The Iranian population, in the meantime, would be left without electricity. No power to their nuclear facilities, no power to their factories, no power to their cities and, of course, no electric power into the households of Iran.
“Iran would be EMP’d back into the industrial equivalent of the mid – 1800′s.”
Eventually, with massive international assistance, millions of Iranians would be saved from the famine which would certainly result from the total elimination of electricity from a modern society.
“The EMP option may be the proper response to a nuclear armed Iran.”
One, at the most three, nuclear explosions within the nation of Israel would eliminate it.
“Depending on decisions made in Israel over the next several months, we might be watching the first use of a nuclear weapon that eliminates an entire nation from modern civilization.”
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WarSclerotic 
June 19, 2012 at 1:46 PM
Israel will never use the nuclear choice as the first strike. There are additional means to bring down the power grid in Iran and those will be used. The nuclear move will be used by Israel only if the country will be faced with annihilation. We don’t want to be there, do we?
No Har Megiddo battle – Armageddon i mean – do we want here.
At least, we won’t start one.
June 21, 2012 at 12:02 PM
Joseph,
You probably do not welcome articles from Brits usually, but the subject is one we study very closely so, if you want to use it or just part of it, please do so with my blessing. If you want to consign it to the waste paper bin then that’s fine too. I hope, as a good friend of Israel, that it might draw attention to the EMP threat you face rather then your use of EMPs.
All this preamble, coloured red in the original, not for publication though please.
Best wishes
Blimp (Rupert)
But who will play the ace of spades first?
On 19th June, J.W. printed a very interesting piece entitled : “A Nuclear EMP attack on Iran may be the only option left for Israel.” Here are some further thoughts:
There may be no other choice for Israel.
As a defence and geopolitical analyst in the UK, this subject holds particular interest for me, my colleagues and those we advise. In February 2012, we came to very much the same conclusion as the article of the 19th. The logic seems to go something like this:
Iran, by playing the international community along in their usual manner, has gained valuable time in continuing uranium enrichment, protecting production facilities and developing offensive capabilities. Iran is already a considerable threat to Israel and the rest of the free world but will become even more of a threat if not stopped.
President Obama, despite manoeuvring considerable military assets in the region and making some very fine speeches, has not actually done anything to stop the Iranians and still thinks that sanctions, meetings and talks will solve the problem. They will not, in our view.
Thus Israel is faced with the unappetising choice either of letting Iran become even more of an existential threat, or trusting the US to protect them, or stopping Iran. I believe that Israel cannot rely on Obama, who would wring his hands and make a bellicose speech if Iran attacked Israel, but by then it would be too late. Israel cannot allow Iran to become more of a threat, so it has to stop Iran.
If it has to stop Iran and go alone, then our own assessment is that tactical nuclear weapons will indeed be needed to create the ground shock to reach the deepest bunkers. A low level EMP strike, in addition, would enable Israel to carry out its mission, reduce losses and limit retaliation. A blast at around 50kms high would knock out everything electronic within a radius of around 750 kms.
We have argued for a number of years now, sometimes at very high levels, that appeasement of Iran will not work. As a result, if the Free World does nothing, then Israel, not by choice but by necessity, may have to use these weapons. We argue that by appeasing Iran, world leaders have thus brought the world closer to its first nuclear war and to the great danger of proliferation in the Middle East and elsewhere.
We can understand only too well that Israel, with its history, will not allow its people yet again to be slaughtered. We can understand, as Gentiles, only too well, the phrase: “Never again!”
I should make it very clear that we are not giving an opinion on whether Israel should use these weapons. That is a matter for the Israelis alone and we are not so presumptuous as to think our opinion should even be considered by Israelis anyway, but the hard, cold logic of the situation is interpreted by us as arriving at a point where this could be the least worst option, from the Israeli viewpoint, if international, and particularly US, inaction leaves no other alternative.
Israeli nuclear and military doctrine would appear to allow the use of such weapons if the country is mortally threatened and we believe also that aircraft were armed and made ready with nuclear weapons during both the Yom Kippur War and the First Iraqui War, although never used. There is apparently a precedent therefore.
Of course bien pensants everywhere will condemn Israel if they attack, as they always do, but that great man, General Moshe Dayan, once said: “Israel must be like a mad dog, too dangerous to bother.” He made a good point.
What if the Iranians get there first?
Would you mind now if I turned this argument on its head and considered the proposition from another direction?
What is the threat of Iran developing or acquiring and then using such a weapon?
This is something that, as analysts, we have been considering for some time. We think it is a real threat. We think it is a greater threat than a nuclear attack using the type of warhead that, until now, we have considered the primary threat.
A traditional nuclear bomb will destroy a city. An EMP device can destroy a country, if exploded at high altitude. That country could be Israel, it could be my country; Great Britain, it could be America.
We believe that that the Iranians are only too well aware of just what devastation this mighty weapon could deliver; a true bringer of Armageddon. It is one of the reasons why we, as rather unimportant and inconsequential analysts, are with you, our Israeli friends, in insisting to those in power in the West that Iran must not be allowed to obtain nuclear weapon capability or use any weapons that they may have already acquired. (We think there are indications that the Iranians may already have acquired at least two Soviet era nuclear devices when the USSR broke up.)
What is the logic behind our concern on EMP devices in Iranian hands?
It arises from the intelligence reports, mostly in the public domain, regarding Iranian actions and statements. Let me give you some examples to support our case:
1. In May 2005, Jane’s Missiles and Rockets told us that recent missile tests by Iran may have been part of the development of an Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) warhead. We believe they were just that. Jane’s is a very reliable source.
2. It has separately been reported that the Iranian Revolutionary Guards have successfully tested a ballistic missile from a ship in the Caspian Sea that would be EMP capable.
3. The Iranian Navy is also armed with ballistic missiles, which could fire an EMP missile, we are told.
4. High altitude triggers are being developed by the Iranians, according to usually reliable sources. These would be used in EMP devices.
5. Iranian military handbooks are reported to already point out the benefits of such EMP attacks.
6. Iranian Rear Admiral Ali Fadavi, speaking on 29.4.2012 in Yazd, Iran, said that : “The power of our naval forces is such that we have a presence in all the waters of the world and, if needed, we can move to within three miles of New York.”
That would be an ideal position from which to launch an EMP device. It is now well known how such a device could be concealed within a shipping container and launched at its target country from that country’s own territorial waters. It does not need to be particularly accurate either.
So, it appears to us that the Iranians are and have been actively developing such devices and we infer from Admiral Fadavi’s comments that they have targets in mind. In particular, one target that should concentrate President Obama’s mind, we would have thought.
Therefore perhaps another question that should be asked is: “Can we let Iran obtain, retain or develop EMP weapons?”
We believe the answer to that question is a firm “NO!” Many in Israel would, we think, agree with us.
Not only would repeated statements from the Iranian Theocracy lead us to believe that they are serious in their intention to eliminate Israel, and attack the West, but the God like power, given by EMP, to reduce advanced societies to the way of life of the nineteenth century would appeal to every mad despot on the planet, should the Iranians be allowed to continue. Every despot would want his own EMP weapon.
It is sad that the West is not standing at Israel’s shoulder to prevent Iran creating Mayhem. It is sad that Israel must stand alone for the moment, perhaps hopeful that President Obama’s soaring rhetoric will mean that the US will actually support Israel again instead of handicapping her.
I have said to JW previously that, at this moment in history, Israel seems to me to be comparable with Leonidas and his Spartans, standing there firm, brave and defiant, ready to take on the threat from a new Persia under a new Xerxes, who this time seeks to establish a world-wide Caliphate.
Leonidas and his men probably saved the West from Persian conquest. Israel may go down in history as having carried out a similar service to the world.
I wish you well.
PS. JW. If you want me to send this to an e-mail address as an attachment, if that is easier for you, I will do so.