WarSclerotic

U.S. officials are cautiously optimistic about the outcome of the second round of talks between Iran and the West scheduled for May 23 in Baghdad. Officials told The New York Times on Saturday that the P5+1 countries — U.N. Security Council members the U.S., Britain, France, Russia and China, plus Germany — intend to offer Iran an incentives package in exchange for an end to its uranium enrichment program.

According to the senior officials, in addition to ending its uranium enrichment, Iran will be asked to transfer uranium it has already enriched to 20 percent outside the country and stop all nuclear activity at the underground Fordo enrichment facility, located near the city of Qom. If Iran agrees to those conditions, the talks will reportedly be upgraded to a more practical framework and sanctions such as a ban on selling Iran spare parts for aircraft and giving technical aid to the country’s oil industry may be lifted.

The New York Times report said the Western powers do not intend to offer a complete cancellation of sanctions on Iran’s crude oil industry, of which the toughest to date is scheduled to take effect on July 1. The impending sanctions are believed to be the factor behind Iran’s decision to pursue a diplomatic solution to the crisis with the West.

In January, the EU formally adopted an oil embargo against Iran and a freeze of the country’s central bank assets as part of sanctions meant to pressure Tehran to resume talks on its nuclear program. The unprecedented effort to take Iran’s 2.6 million barrels of oil per day off international markets pushed down Iran’s rial currency and caused a surge in the cost of basic goods for Iranians.

The measures included an immediate embargo on new contracts for crude oil and petroleum products while existing ones would be allowed to run until July.

According to The New York Times, U.S. President Barack Obama would like to expand the West’s diplomatic contacts with Iran, a move that would enable the U.S. to postpone any possible military intervention in Iran until after the U.S. presidential elections.

Despite hopes for diplomatic progress in the upcoming talks, U.S. officials say that the negotiations will be a crucial test of Iran’s intentions. “They are pressured enough to want to talk, but we don’t know if they are pressured enough to change course,” an Obama administration official said.

International Atomic Energy Agency Director-General Yukiya Amano is set to visit Iran on Sunday to sign an agreement detailing the scope of IAEA inspector operation in the country.

An IAEA statement announcing the trip said only that Amano would “discuss issues of mutual interest with high Iranian officials” during his one-day visit. But diplomats said the visit was scheduled to allow both sides to agree on an accord outlining the mechanics of IAEA access to sites, information and officials for its investigation into whether Iran secretly conducted nuclear weapons research and development.

Meanwhile, opposition to Iran obtaining nuclear weapons is widespread around the world, including in neighboring countries Egypt, Jordan and Turkey, and support for tough economic sanctions is high, according to a poll released Friday by Pew Global Attitudes.

Support for military intervention to prevent Iran from going nuclear is more divided, the survey of 21 nations found. Among the countries polled, support was highest in the U.S. at 63% and lowest in Russia at 24%, while at least 50% of the people surveyed in Britain, France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Poland and the Czech Republic favored military action.

The Pew poll found that Iran’s actions in recent years had damaged its standing in the neighboring Sunni-majority countries of Egypt and Jordan, where favorability ratings are low, support for military intervention reached 50% and approval of strengthening economic sanctions is high.

But in Turkey, a major trade partner of Iran, a majority opposes toughening sanctions.

Pakistan had the highest support for Iran’s nuclear ambitions, at 50 percent. In Lebanon, the poll found that 73% of the Shiite minority overwhelmingly supports Iran’s nuclear program, though a strong majority of the religiously divided Lebanese population overall opposes it. Iran is a mostly Shiite country.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad received highly negative ratings in Jordan, Egypt, Turkey and Lebanon, though nearly half of Pakistanis viewed him favorably.

The poll found that clear majorities of Americans of all political leanings — Republicans, Democrats and independents — support military action in Iran.

However, in France, where NATO’s Afghanistan operation is highly unpopular, support for military intervention fell to 51%, a drop of 8 percentage points over the past two years.

The survey of 26,210 people was conducted between March 17 and April 20 and had a margin of error of 3.2 to 5.2 percentage points, depending on the country.