WarSclerotic

Let’s talk facts.
Fact No. 1: The person dismantling Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition is Benjamin Netanyahu. It is not being broken up by the threats of Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, nor by pressure from Interior Minister Eli Yishai. Nor is fear of Shaul Mofaz or Shelly Yacimovich behind the Knesset’s dissolution.

Netanyahu tried to break up his government before Passover so that the election could be held before the summer. The government proved to be too strong, so he had to wait until the Knesset reconvened. The prime minister himself is behind the process that aims to return us to the polling stations in September.

Fact No. 2: Netanyahu is not breaking up his government for political reasons. His political standing is strong. Nor does he want elections for socioeconomic reasons. Although demonstrations are expected in the summer and an economic slowdown is expected in the fall, the the Israeli public still sees the prime minister as being highly skilled in the socioeconomic sphere.

The reason Netanyahu is himself dismantling his strong and stable government is external: the upcoming U.S. election. The prime minister of Israel is determined to get to the Israeli election booth before the president of the United States gets to the American election booth in November.

Fact No. 3: The first reason Netanyahu wants to beat U.S. President Barack Obama to the polls is personal survival. It was U.S. President George H.W. Bush who replaced Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir with Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin in 1992. And it was U.S. President Bill Clinton who replaced Prime Minister Netanyahu, in his first term, with Prime Minister Ehud Barak in 1999. Both instances of a right-wing government being replaced by a left-wing one were inspired by U.S. presidents who were fed up with the Likud government in power.

Obama loathes Netanyahu even more than Bush loathed Shamir or than Clinton loathed Netanyahu. If Obama wins in November, he will immediately crush the Israeli prime minister who dared to defy him. As a result, by December the right-wing government might already be feeling the pain. That’s why Netanyahu wants to hold the election toward the end of the summer.

Fact No. 4: The other reason Netanyahu wants to beat Obama to the polls is national survival. The prime minister is determined to strike Iran, and judges that he will only be able to do so before the U.S. election in November. He wants to make sure he has some wiggle room after the Israeli election and before the American election.

During this interim the new Israeli government will have absolute authority, while the U.S. administration will be impotent. By bringing the election forward Netanyahu is defining the ideal time to attack Iran: September or October.

The ramifications of these four facts, taken together, are clear. The turbulent political season that will begin in Israel next week indicates not that the threat of a confrontation with Iran has passed, but rather that it has grown.

Slowly but surely, without anyone noticing, Netanyahu is working to advance a well-organized action plan, according to a strict timeable, that will bring the strategic crisis to boiling point before next winter. He is operating decisively within both the Israeli and the American political systems in order to reach his goal. So far he is getting what he wants, fashioning the chessboard to his liking. He is bringing to life the scenario of elections (in Israel ), war (in Iran ) and elections (in the United States ).

The timetable is insane. But so are the situation, the challenge and the political system. There is an intolerable gap between the national leadership and the public.

Netanyahu is playing three-dimensional chess on a rickety board, without public support. That means the election campaign will not be only about economic and social issues. It must address the issue of Iran and it must become a referendum on Iran. That is the only way to guarantee that the decision on Iran, whatever it may be, will be made by the nation and not by one person