WarSclerotic

During Passover, which takes place this week, Jews recall the hallowed story of their flight from ancient Egypt, where their ancestors were held in slavery.

No threat, cry, lament or appeal would persuade the headstrong Pharaoh to free the Jews. In anger, God brought plague after plague upon the Egyptians, a veritable reign of terror. The Egyptians endured blood, frogs, vermin, beasts, pestilence, boils, hail, locusts, and darkness. When the Pharaoh still remained adamant after these nine plagues, God ordered the slaying of the Egyptian first-born.

That did it. The Pharaoh released the Jews, who fled quickly into the desert. Predictably, though, he changed his mind and sent his legions after them. As we know, they met a watery end in the Red Sea.

No doubt, observing this regime of escalating violence, some thought that the plagues would work. It is hard to say that each plague was harsher than the one before — are frogs worse than beasts and locusts worse than boils? — but the reality is that it did take 10 of them to make the case. And it wasn’t until the last plague — killing the first-born — that the Pharaoh relented, if only for a while.

There is no easy parallel between ancient Egypt and the modern Iranians, other than that Egypt enslaved the Israelites and Iran, to listen to its unhinged leader, wants to liquidate them.

Then and now, there was a calibrated response by a higher power to an identifiable evil. God, the defender of the Jews, brought a regime of punishment upon the Egyptians. Today the United States, Canada and the European Union are imposing a regime of sanctions to force the Iranians to abandon their nuclear program. Like the ancient plagues, some sanctions are stronger than others.

Last year, the Americans imposed restrictions on Iran’s banks, making it almost impossible for Iranians to do business abroad. The rial, the country’s national currency, has lost three-quarters of its value. The hyperinflation and unemployment may not be physically harmful but to the Iranians it is a form of pestilence, locusts or darkness. Still, the leadership makes no concessions.

Worse for the Iranians is the oil embargo. It is not airtight, but revenues are falling, and it hurts.

With the imposition of both economic and financial sanctions, then, the impact of this 21st century justice seems to be severe.

But the fundamental question remains whether sanctions alone can force the Iranians to abandon their nuclear ambitions. When talks resume in Istanbul this week, we will know if the Iranians want to make a deal or play for time. Either the Iranians agree to abandon their efforts to enrich uranium and surrender their stockpile of nuclear fuel and allow inspectors to verify both, or they don’t. If they don’t, we have to assume that they insist on developing nuclear weapons.

That’s where the modern story of the Jews gets very interesting — and very dangerous.

For months, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been doubting the effectiveness of the regime of sanctions, like the first nine plagues. As God finally had to turn to selective violence to force the oppressor’s hand, Netanyahu suggests Israel must do the same.

He says Israel’s only response to this existential threat, as he calls it, is to attack Iran’s nuclear installations. The problem is that every intelligence report says that an attack would only delay the program by one to three years.

So, another parallel between modern sanctions and biblical plagues: as the 10th plague didn’t really work, neither will an Israeli attack. As the slaying of the first-born only detained the Egyptians, who soon pursued the Israelites, a strike will only delay the Iranians, who will then rally in anger behind their corrupt, flimsy regime, armed with a new moral casus belli against Israel.

At that point, if there is any chance the Iranians are not already making the bomb, they surely will begin. And then, having rejected a negotiated solution, an emboldened, unified leadership will threaten to destroy Israel from now until the End of Days.

Which leaves Israel — and those who fear for its survival — looking for a miracle equivalent to the parting of the waters. That could mean, for example, turning to the Americans, with their superior bombs, to destroy Iran’s heavily fortified nuclear installations.

The Americans would do more damage than the Israelis. But they would not stop the program, either.

It may be that the only miracle here is political: that the Iranians, given a mix of carrot and stick and a host of unpalatable options, decide to suspend their program. And that, eventually, the leadership collapses, the regime changes and Iran rejoins the international community.

If not, we have to believe that we can contain a nuclear Iran. We begin by letting the Iranians know that if they attack Israel, they, like the ancient Egyptians, will face the unforgiving waters of the Red Sea.

Andrew Cohen is a professor of journalism and international affairs at Carleton University. Email: andrewzcohen@yahoo.ca