WarSclerotic

Oman Tribune – the edge of knowledge.

WASHINGTON The Obama administration is bluntly warning Israel about the danger of bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities, but it is far from clear whether the allies are truly at odds over a core policy question or orchestrating an elaborate campaign to wring concessions from the Islamic Republic.

Both countries say that at least for now, tightening a web of economic sanctions around Iran’s vital oil exports is the best way to pressure Teheran into serious negotiations about its nuclear programme, which the US and its allies suspect is aimed at mastering the know-how to build a bomb.

But Israel regards a nuclear-armed Iran as an existential threat, and in recent weeks officials have suggested they may attack its nuclear facilities before the programme reaches a point of no return.

At times, US officials have appeared alarmed that overheated war talk could ignite a conflict and sought to tamp it down.

But the administration has struggled “to find the right mix of threat and persuasion,” said Suzanne Maloney, a former State Department official now at the Brookings Institution’s Saban Center for Middle East Policy.

“Wildly oscillating” messages “are playing out in the media in ways that are not helpful to whatever the diplomatic aims of the Israelis and the Americans might be,” she added.

Cliff Kupchan, a former State Department official now with the risk analysis firm Eurasia Group, said the Obama administration “is using the real possibility of an Israeli attack to both push sanctions and to wring concessions out of Iran. And the same time, US military and other officials are publicly and privately telling Israel not to go, because they think it’s a truly bad idea.”

Israeli officials insist publicly that the two countries are working closely together.

“Not only is there no crisis, but coordination and understandings are tightening,” said Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon. “We see nearly eye-to-eye on the course of action as well as on the whole.”

Israeli media have portrayed the flurry of visits by top American security officials as an attempt to dissuade Israel or, in the words of one published report, to “implore” it not to attack Iran. Whether Israel really is considering an airstrike is far from clear. For one thing, Netanyahu does not appear to have convinced his security Cabinet or the military that bombing Iran is the proper course.

“The problem for Netanyahu is that some military insiders are still against it,” said an Israeli official, who did not want to be identified when speaking about the sensitive issue.

Several high-ranking military and intelligence officials who retired last year, including Meir Dagan, who headed the spy agency Mossad, have come out publicly against preemptive military action.

To some, the mixed messages appear to be part of a grander strategy.

“It’s a shell game in which the Europeans play the ‘good cop,’ the US is the ‘bad cop’ and Israel is the ‘crazy cop,’” said Cameron Brown, international affairs columnist for The Jerusalem Post. “The idea is to appear so irrational that you scare the other side into making concessions. It’s a strategy Israel has used for a long time.”

A military official said the “crazy Israel” strategy has served as an effective deterrent over the years.

National security adviser Tom Donilon told Israeli officials that Washington shares their concern about Iran’s nuclear push but also stressed the need to let sanctions work, White House spokesman Jay Carney said.

“We certainly understand the heightened concern that Israel has given its geographic location and other circumstances that are involved here for Israel,” Carney said, discussing Donilon’s visit and the White House view on Iran’s ambitions.

This entry was posted on February 23, 2012 at 9:16 AM and is filed under Uncategorized. You can subscribe via RSS 2.0 feed to this post's comments. You can comment below, or link to this permanent URL from your own site.