WarSclerotic

In Israel, worries about Iran attack.

By Aron Heller

Associated Press

JERUSALEM – Despite its confident saber-rattling, concern in Israel is growing that the country is vulnerable to a devastating counterstrike if it attacks Iran’s nuclear program.

An announcement this week that a mobile rocket-defense system would soon be built just outside Tel Aviv, where Israel’s sprawling military headquarters sits in the middle of office towers, museums, night spots and hotels, caused jitters. Israeli officials cite intelligence reports that Tel Aviv would be a main target of any attack.

Increasingly, the debate in Israel is turning to whether a strike can damage the Iranian program enough to be worth the risks. Experts believe that any attack would at best set back, but not cripple, the Iranians.

Vice Prime Minister Dan Meridor, who also serves as minister of intelligence and atomic energy, indicated Saturday that Israel was facing a new type of peril.

“Whereas in the past, there was a battlefield where tanks fought tanks, planes fought planes, there was a certain push not to see the homefront affected. Now the war is mainly in the homefront,” said the normally tight-lipped Meridor.

“The whole of Israel [is vulnerable to] tens of thousands of missiles and rockets from neighboring countries. So of course we need to understand the change of paradigm,” he continued. “If there is a war, and I hope there isn’t a war, they are not just going to hit Israeli soldiers. The main aim is at civilian populations.”

Both Israel and the West believe Iran is trying to develop a nuclear bomb, a charge Tehran denies. Israel believes a nuclear-armed Iran would threaten its existence, citing Iranian leaders’ calls for its destruction.

An Israeli military strike would likely draw an Iranian retaliation, experts believe, which would involve either Iran’s firing its long-range Shahab missiles or acting via local proxies of Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, or even Assad loyalists in Syria.

Unlike in the 2006 war against Hezbollah, Israel’s main population centers are believed to be possible targets this time.

Jerusalem is considered relatively safe because of its Islamic holy sites. But the Mediterranean coast, home to most of the population, with Tel Aviv at its center, seems like an attractive target.

The business and cultural capital of the country, with a metropolitan population of more than two million, Tel Aviv is critical to Israel’s image of itself as a modern place with a Western lifestyle. Israel happily markets the city as a high-tech, fun-loving hub.

Aside from a spate of Saddam Hussein’s rudimentary Scud missiles in 1991, the city has never truly been tested before. Although the Scuds caused little damage, memories of that war are vivid. The strikes caused widespread panic and tens of thousands of people fled to safer areas of the country or left altogether. A prolonged siege on the city today could likely fuel another exodus.

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