WarSclerotic

How much can U.S. influence Israel on Iran? – CBS News.

(CBS News)

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There is new drama this morning over Iran’s nuclear program. Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned that any attack halt that program would be harmful to America – this after Israeli leaders issued unusually blunt warnings about possibly striking Iranian nuclear sites. U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta reportedly believes that could happen within the next few months.

Bob Schieffer says Washington wants to do everything it can to keep Iran off-balance. “We also want them to know that we know a lot about what they are doing,” he said on “CBS This Morning.”

But how much consultation might take place if Israel made a decision to attack?

The White House, says John Miller, doesn’t know the answer to that.

“The questions from the National Security Council on out are, do we get a day’s notice? Do we get a week’s notice? Or do we get two hours’ notice?” Miller said. “I think the latter scenario, a couple of hours, is the most likely, because Israel is not going to want to put itself in the position of having the U.S. have a lot of time to weigh in and gather any pressure once they know. So I think it will be pretty fast.”

Schieffer suggests that the United States wants Iran to know that we can’t control Israel. “This is something that we might urge them not to do this, but in the end we can’t control it,” he said.

Miller said, “Yesterday we arrived at the intersection of intelligence information and political messaging, with Panetta on “60 Minutes” on Sunday saying, ‘Well, it will take them a year to get the material and another year to get the bomb.’ Kind of takes a lot of air out of the urgency saying, ‘Well, sanctions have plenty of time to work. We can kind of get through this in time.’

“Whereas, an Israeli military uniformed official [doesn’t] make a statement like that without Bibi Netanyahu saying it’s okay to do it.”

Miller said there is a difference between American and Israeli estimates on the timing of Iran’s acquiring a nuclear weapon capability, but not in what constitutes the “red line” that would prompt action.

Miller said he foresaw a “layered approach” with regards to action by Tehran: “Iran will move their missiles into Lebanon. That will be Hezbollah acting as a surrogate. You’ll see a lot of those launched in the settlements, and then depending on what happens next, you will probably also see terrorist attacks against Jewish, Israeli and American targets in places like South America, the tri-border area, and U.S. bases overseas. “

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