WarSclerotic

Iran preparing a nuclear test?: Voice of Russia.

Photo: AFP

Iran is ready for serious talks with the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, plus Germany, on its controversial nuclear program, speaker of Iran’s parliament Ali Larijani said Thursday during his visit to Turkey. Mr. Larijani stressed that Iran’s nuclear program is for purely peaceful purposes.

In the meantime, Israeli open source military intelligence web site, Debka.com, claims that Iran is preparing an underground test of a one-kiloton nuclear device during 2012 or in early 2013, much like the test carried out by North Korea in 2006.

Assessing the likelihood of such a nuclear test is quite a challenging task. To develop a nuclear warhead, Iran needs to have uranium enriched to 90% purity. Meanwhile, Iran`s technology is not that sufficient to ensure the implementation of this test. Although chances are still there for the country to receive enriched uranium from abroad, says Pyotr Topychkanov, a scientist at the Russian Academy of Sciences:

“In the 1990s or in the early 2000s Iran could have illegally received enough uranium from abroad. There are international networks smuggling nuclear technology and materials, like the one in Pakistan, named after prominent nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan.”

It is worth mentioning, however, that unlike Israel or Pakistan, Iran signed the Comprehensive Nuclear – Test – Ban Treaty, and insists on its adherence to the nuclear non – proliferation regime. So, if Tehran is really preparing an underground nuclear test, it should first quit several international agreements it had previously signed. But Iran may choose an alternative way to go, believes Pyotr Topychkanov…

“It is possible that Iran decides not to quit these international agreements and carry out a test secretly, saying it is for peaceful purposes, or stage it abroad, say, in Pakistan or North Korea.”

The expert admits, however, that Iran’s nuclear test would by all means result in the Arab states and Turkey also willing to seek nuclear technology and weapons. As far as Israel, the U.S. and Europe are concerned, their reaction to the test is going to be very tough, and a military attack on Iran should not be excluded.

Yevgeny Satanovsky,President of the Middle East Institute, has a different point of view…

“As soon as the test will have taken place, attacking Iran won`t make any sense. Remember North Korea: nobody is going to invade it now precisely because it possesses one or even two nuclear bombs. At the same time, Muammar Gaddafi, who renounced a nuclear program, did not survive. Saddam, who failed to implement his nuclear program, was executed. It is very simple: you will survive only if your have nukes.”

In view of this, the statement released by Israel on Debka.com can be interpreted as a provocation from Iran, Mr. Satanovsky believes…

“Such kind of statements may be made on purpose, even by Iran itself, for example, to threaten Israel and the West. By doing so, Tehran might want to warn everyone that it is about to become a nuclear state.”

Both experts interviewed by the VoR agree that although the information on the Israeli web site is difficult to verify, it is hardly a provocation since there exist other media outlets where such statements can be made, and using a different tone, too. This very report appears to be a leak created on purpose amid the continuing aggression against Iran. The task of world powers now is to prevent this information from becoming a reality, and this is where Russia and China, who have always insisted on a peaceful solution to the Iranian nuclear issue, come in.

This entry was posted on January 13, 2012 at 2:33 PM and is filed under Uncategorized. You can subscribe via RSS 2.0 feed to this post's comments. You can comment below, or link to this permanent URL from your own site.