WarSclerotic

Former inspector: Iran ‘one year… JPost – Iranian Threat – News.

    VIENNA – Having switched production of higher-grade enriched uranium to a new, underground site, Iran is now just a year or so away from having enough such material for a nuclear bomb, a former head of UN nuclear inspections said.

However, Olli Heinonen wrote in an article published on Thursday that building a stock of some 250 kg of 20-percent enriched uranium – a form that could within weeks be further purified to the 90-percent weapons grade – did not automatically mean Iran could deploy a bomb without further engineering work.

Heinonen, a Finn, was deputy director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) until 2010 and is now at Harvard University. He made the prediction days after Iran confirmed the start of 20-percent enrichment inside the Fordow mountain, fueling Western fears Tehran is seeking atomic arms.

Estimates on when Iran, which says its nuclear program is entirely peaceful, might be able to develop such weapons are significant as they could help determine the time available for major powers to resolve the long-running nuclear row peacefully.

Iran says it needs to refine uranium to that 20-percent level of fissile purity, compared with the 3.5 percent normally needed to fuel nuclear power plants, for a medical research reactor in Tehran producing isotopes for cancer patients.

But Western diplomats and experts question the credibility of that justification and note that acquiring the ability to produce 20-percent uranium is a big step closer to potential weapons material of 90 percent, shortening the time required for any “breakout” bid to produce bombs.

“If Iran decides to produce weapons-grade uranium from 20-percent enriched uranium, it has already technically undertaken 90 percent of the enrichment effort required,” Heinonen wrote in a Foreign Policy magazine article.

“What remains to be done is the feeding of 20-percent uranium through existing, additional cascades to achieve weapons-grade enrichment … This step is much faster from earlier ones.”

‘Iran can ‘break out’ of int’l obligations very quickly’

Iran has until now produced 20-percent uranium above ground at another location but announced last year it would shift this higher-grade activity to the underground site at Fordow, offering better protection against any enemy air strikes.

It also plans to step up the work, conducted by centrifuge machines that spin at supersonic speed to increase the ratio of the fissile isotope U-235. It continues to produce 3.5-percent uranium at its main enrichment site at Natanz.

This entry was posted on January 12, 2012 at 5:22 PM and is filed under Uncategorized. You can subscribe via RSS 2.0 feed to this post's comments. You can comment below, or link to this permanent URL from your own site.