WarSclerotic

2012: The Year Of Iran? | Iran | Strait_Of_Hormuz | Gulf | Foreign Matters | Sky News Blogs.

Each year, for about 8 years, the month of January has brought the prediction; ‘This will be the year of Iran’

It’s always been possible, but I’ve never been convinced, I’m not convinced that it will come true this year either, but, all the reasons why it might are coming to a head.

It’s not just that after all this time the ability of the Iranians to ‘break out’ and build nuclear weapons is much more advanced. It is a range of other factors.

Diplomacy has failed. Red lines have been crossed. Iran is moving its most sensitive equipment into hardened bunkers. Bunker busting missiles have been ordered. War games have been played. Major US troops concentrations are now out of region. The US has just tightened sanctions, the EU may do so at the end of the month. The sabre rattling continues.

There are arguments in favour of attacking Iran, and arguments against; both have consequences.

Attack Iran, smash its air defences, and navy, take out its nuclear weapons capability, and you curtail what critics say is Tehrans malign influence throughout the Middle East. Air strikes might persuade the countries which fear Iran that they do not need their own nuclear arsenals. A military strike might hasten the end of the Mullah’ s theocracy.

Don’t attack Iran, and the theory goes, Tehran gets the bomb, dominates the Middle East, sparks a regional nuclear arms race, and possibly attacks Israel..

Those opposing military action point out that it might not work, and at best would only delay the nuclear project. The retaliation by Iran would be enormous. It can reach out into the world via its military proxies, Hamas, and Hizbollah. It’s own conventional weapons can reach Israel. The Gulf would likely be closed to ships causing the oil price to double and ensuring a global recession. Those against an attack argue that air strikes would actually make the Iranians close ranks around their leaders, thus strengthening the regime.

The Iranians have just finished ten days of military exercises in the Gulf. Every ship which sailed, every mine laid, and every missile launched, was meant to convey the same message. It is a message which defines Iranian foreign policy as it looks westward. It is a maxim in Tehran that ‘If the Gulf is not safe for Iran, it is not safe for anyone’.

The war games were to show the world that Iran can close the Strait of Hormuz, through which passes 20% of the world’s oil needs. The Strait, leading from the Gulf out to open waters is just 34 miles across at its narrowest point.

With the Iranians practising their ‘we can sink American ships and oil tankers’ routine, the US decided to sail the USS John C. Stennis aircraft carrier group through the Strait.

Today the head of Iran’s army said ‘We advise and insist that this warship not return to its former base in the Persian Gulf,” Brigadier General Ataollah Salehi added – “We don’t have the intention of repeating our warning, and we warn only once’

So, if the Stennis decides it wants to go to the US 5th fleet’s base in Bahrain, what does it do? Well it simply sails straight back through the Strait. If not, President Obama makes America look weak in an election year. If the Stennis does return, that gives the Iranians a choice; to take ‘action’ or to back down. ‘Action’ could take various forms, it doesn’t have to be an attack on the carrier fleet, but it would have to be something provocative.

Both sides are playing with fire, in a dangerous place, at a dangerous time.

This entry was posted on January 3, 2012 at 5:08 PM and is filed under Uncategorized. You can subscribe via RSS 2.0 feed to this post's comments. You can comment below, or link to this permanent URL from your own site.