WarSclerotic

This week’s escalation of rhetoric about the Strait of Hormuz by Iran might be entertaining for the most cynical of people, anxious to hear about something other than popular uprisings in Arab countries.

But it is an extremely dangerous game of brinksmanship, which could have catastrophic consequences. The actual closure of the Strait might be aimed at the United States, and depending on how the developments play out, such an act would truly be devastating, on the level of a Sept. 11 moment. But instead of one country bearing the brunt of the event, it would be the entire world, since 40 percent of global oil exports pass through this body of water.

With varying levels of intensity, the world will say no to this threat, but a cycle of such rhetoric could easily spin out of control.

When Tehran’s leaders want to blast the U.S., it is certainly their right to do so, provided that the blasting in question involves words, and not military operations. But when the rhetoric moves into the realm of issuing concrete threats about taking such a step as closing Hormuz, Tehran’s leaders should remember that they are playing with fire, and should consider their steps with extreme care.

If they are trying to avoid dealing with their own domestic problems, a “diversion” by using threats about the global economy could lead to something catastrophic. The threats and counter-threats will increase tension in the region, and the possibility that a simple incident on the ground sparks a larger conflagration.

There is already enough violence and tension in the Middle East, and wasted resources and possibilities for growth. The United States and Israel have been mulling the idea of attacking Iran already, to halt its nuclear program, although the former seems more inclined to follow a path of sanctions and negotiations to resolve the matter.

Iran should read the signals in its immediate vicinity, such as Saudi Arabia, and the news of the latest big-ticket deal involving advanced fighter aircraft from Washington.

Iran should also recall that the U.S. has just freed itself of the quagmire of Iraq. It will presumably focus more now on its military bases in the Gulf and its economic interests there. The U.S. will not stand by idly if Iran continues its bluster, or actually carries out one of its threats.

A military conflict over the Strait of Hormuz could rapidly disintegrate into widespread violence in a range of countries, whether it’s the scenario of Israel launching its own attack, or Iraq becoming even more unstable, as side-battles are fought there.

In short, no one will be safe from the fire. It is time for Tehran, as well as Washington, to view the situation soberly and determine how much of a risk each is willing to take – and how predictable the results of any action may be.tar.com.lb)