WarSclerotic

We’ve heard rumblings from Iran before that the ill-eased country might close the Strait of Hormuz. But on Tuesday, Iran’s vice president gave a more meaningful warning, saying his country is ready to close the Strait of Hormuz if Western nations impose sanctions on its oil shipments.

The world, of course, is growing weary over Iran’s nuclear program. The U.S. has sanctions against Iran in place alrady, but the Obama administration has been considering new ones, according to The New York Times. The measures would penalize foreign partners from doing business with Iran’s central bank which processes payments from oil exports, the newspaper has reported.

That’s why on Wednesday, Iranian Navy chief Adm. Habidollah Sayyari reinforced the country’s threat, saying that Iran’s Navy is ready, waiting, and capable of blocking the Strait of Hormuz if asked to do so.

In the U.S. and elsewhere in the world, that would likely mean higher prices at the pump coming at a critical time, considering the American economy is finally gaining steam, albeit at a snail’s pace. But higher gas prices have a way of crimping slow-but-sure economic growth.

The biggest question is whether Iran is just blowing smoke in threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz.

The U.S. State Department seems to think so, suggesting it saw an “element of bluster” in Iran’s threat.

And another expert thinks it is unlikely that Iran can stop the flow of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz for long, even if it tried.

“The threat by Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz supported the oil market yesterday, but the effect is fading today as it will probably be empty threats as they cannot stop the flow for a longer period due to the amount of U.S. hardware in the area,” said Thorbjoern bak Jensen, an oil analyst with Global Risk Management, in an interview with Reuters.

The consensus among experts, however, is that yes, Iran could very well close off the Strait of Hormuz. Short of all-out war, it’s one of the biggest weapons the country has in its arsenal. And Iran doesn’t appear afraid to use it. Yet war-like tactics would be required to close it, says one expert.

“They would physically have to attack and maintain hold of that property. And everyone in the neighborhood is going to (try to) stop them,” said Theodore Karasik, an analyst at the Dubai-based Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis, according to CBS News.

In other words, Iran’s effort to close it wouldn’t go down without a fight. And even a temporary closing would force oil tankers to take longer, much more expensive routes which of course would drive oil prices higher, and ultimately, prices at the pump higher. That’s why reports suggest that the U.S. has a plan to keep the Strait of Hormuz open.

Threats of closing the Strait have been made before. In 2008, for instance, Iran’s military leader said that if Iran was attacked by the U.S. or Israel it would seal off the Strait of Hormuz to rock oil markets. But the U.S. Navy and Gulf allies suggested such a move would be considered an act of war.

Such a move may be seen the very same way now. And that’s why Iran’s threat is such a big concern. We have the means, resources, and apparently a plan to fight back. But we can only hope that Iran is bluffing, since fighting back would be the only option.