Analysis: Are rockets wake up call for Iran strike?
Analysis: Are rockets wake up ca… JPost – Iranian Threat – News.
Israelis went to sleep Monday night to reports of a mysterious explosion in the Iranian city of Isfahan, home to a key nuclear facility. They woke up, just a few hours later, to the sound of explosions in northern Israel caused by Katyusha rockets launched from southern Lebanon.
A coincidence? Most likely, although the possibility that Iran asked Hezbollah to instruct a splinter Palestinian group to fire the rockets to divert attention from its own troubles was considered within the IDF on Tuesday.
The problem is that such explosions could lead to larger conflicts in a region so tightly wound up like the Middle East even if the sides involved do not intend for it to.
On the other hand, the scenario more carefully scrutinized was that Hezbollah decided to let up its tight grip over these groups and enable one of them to fire four rockets in order to send Israel a warning.
The last time rockets were fired from Lebanon was about two years ago even though the Palestinian groups that were behind those attacks have not disappeared. What has changed though is Hezbollah’s control over southern Lebanon and its strict refusal to allow the groups to operate against Israel.
If the rocket attacks are meant to be interpreted as a signal by Hezbollah then Israel might need to be concerned.
On the one hand, Hezbollah might be signaling that it has the ability to ignite Israel’s northern border at the behest of its Iranian or Syrian patron, both of which are facing major challenges.
On the other hand, it could be Hezbollah’s way to remind Israel of its capabilities as it contemplates the transfer of advanced military equipment from Syria to Lebanon due to concern over the stability of Bashar Assad’s regime.
Hezbollah is believed to have already transferred to Lebanon some advanced systems – possibly Scud missiles – which it was storing in Syria but it has more there and is concerned that they will be lost once Assad is toppled.
Israel also knows how to signal.
Its response to the rocket fire – artillery fire in the direction of the launch sites – was not meant to really achieve an operational goal but rather was meant to show Hezbollah that the days when it bit its tongue and did not respond are over. Instead, Israel also has capabilities and is on high alert along the border with the ability to immediately act if and when needed.
Meanwhile in Iran, the cause and target of the explosion that hit Isfahan on Monday continue to remain a mystery. It is possible that they will stay that way or that the explosion really was not anything. As Intelligence Minister Dan Meridor said Tuesday: Not everything is from a James Bond movie.
Either way, Iran is back in the headlines this week with Israel’s two former spymasters making their first public comments since retiring earlier this year.
Former head of Military Intelligence Maj.-Gen. (res.) Amos Yadlin held a press conference on Tuesday to mark his appointment as the head of a think tank in Tel Aviv and former Mossad chief Meir Dagan gave an exclusive interview to the Uvda (Fact) news show on Channel 2.
During their joint service, Dagan and Yadlin did not always see eye to eye and frequently clashed over budgets and operations. Yadlin, for example, was not happy with Dagan’s success in securing multi-million dollar budgets from consecutive Israeli governments at MI’s expense.
This week, however, they are completely coordinated not only in their timing but also in their general message which is that Israel has time before it needs to launch a military strike to stop Iran’s nuclear program.
Dagan, in the past, said that Israel should not consider taking action until it felt that a sword was up against its neck and this will only be the case once Iran begins building the bomb, something it has not yet decided to do. Yadlin voiced the same opinion on Tuesday although in different words.
The two actually argue over the damage the war that will ensue after an Israeli strike will cause. Dagan dismissed Defense Minister Ehud Barak’s comment that less than 500 people will be killed and said that “there will be many more.” Yadlin warned Israelis on Tuesday not to fall for Iranian propaganda when believing that they are so powerful.
Dagan and Yadlin share though the same concern that Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Barak have already made up their minds to attack Iran. In closed briefings, Barak already speaks like there is no other alternative.
The spymasters think there are and the rockets fired from Lebanon on Tuesday should serve as a warning of what could happen if those alternatives are not first exhausted.
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