WarSclerotic

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Only last May, the European Union appeared incapable of imposing an embargo on oil imports from Syria

Even then, faced with only peaceful opposition to his decades-long rule, Assad had no qualms about shelling his own country’s towns and cities with tanks. 3,500 Syrians have died since then, according to the UN, most of whom were presumably civilians. Yet few would have imagined how quickly events would progress since last spring. Even those who pushed successfully for EU sanctions likely believed that they would be little more than a symbolic show of support for Syria’s doomed opposition forces. Assad’s regime simply appeared too strong, its support from the large Alawite minority too loyal, and the protesters too powerless, for economic sanctions to effectively turn the tide against Syria’s ruler.

Yet in thinking in this way, what many of us forgot was that the context of international politics in the Mediterranean has been transformed beyond all recognition. Back in spring, even the initiative for EU sanctions against Syria looked as though it would be stillborn. And when it wasn’t, when EU member states agreed to slap Assad’s regime with relatively tough sanctions, it was hardly expected that anything more would come of it. Russia and China would continue to block any initiatives through the UN Security Council and the Arab League would remain as toothless and irrelevant to regional politics as we had long grown accustomed to believing, allowing Syria to continue making brisk trade with its neighbours and oil-thirsty China.

Then, surprising the cynics in the West, the Arab League jumped to the rescue of Syria’s beleaguered people. It began conservatively enough: With a negotiated deal that proscribed the Syrian president from storming urban areas with his army. When it became very clear that Assad had no intention of sticking to the deal, things began to move quickly. The Arab League, once dominated by secular authoritarian rulers like Syria’s – which would have almost certainly turned a blind eye to atrocities committed by one of their own – is now largely composed of revolutionary governments. Syria was summarily suspended and it now faces the prospect of economic sanctions from its regional partners if it doesn’t accept a 500-strong mission of Arab League observers. This is nothing if not a watershed in the history of the regional body.

Most importantly, of course, the Arab League’s decisive stance is a huge boon for Syria’s opposition movement. But not only because of the direct show of support from the country’s neighbours. The indirect consequences are likely more important for the ultimate fate of Assad: The fact that the vast majority of Arab states have now turned on the Syrian regime has opened the way for the international community to take bolder action, for not only has the regime lost all legitimacy domestically but also regionally. It has effectively lost all support, with the important exception of Russia, its arms supplier. China remains non-committal – but recent history shows that it is less likely than Russia to attempt to permanently frustrate strong and unwavering international opinion on a subject.

Now humanitarian intervention, what was only a few weeks ago dismissed as impossible by most commentators due to the lack of political will, is under active consideration. The French Foreign Minister, Alan Juppe, after recognising the opposition Syrian National Council as the country’s legitimate interlocutor last Wednesday, has announced his intention to propose sending international troops into the country to protect civilians. A statement soon followed by the European Union’s representative for foreign affairs, Catherine Ashton, which appears to show tacit support for France’s line.

Assad’s once unassailable grip on power is now no longer simply faced with an opposition movement but with an existential threat: His brutal crackdown on defenceless protesters has spawned a heavily armed opposition fighting force, led by defectors from his army and, crucially, the international community, no longer distracted by events in Libya and elsewhere, has now turned its full attention on Syria. The country’s dictator, through his ruthlessness in holding onto power, has dug himself into a hole: He has nowhere to hide and no one to turn to. It is now only a question of how many more will have to die before he is forced out.

The answer to that question depends, to a great extent, on whether the European Union and its international partners find the political will – and the support from their own citizens, including us – not necessarily to overthrow one of the Mediterranean’s last dictators but, at the very least, to stop him from doing his worst.

This entry was posted on November 26, 2011 at 12:01 PM and is filed under Uncategorized. You can subscribe via RSS 2.0 feed to this post's comments. You can comment below, or link to this permanent URL from your own site.