WarSclerotic

‘Iran is on a collision course with the West’ – Defence Management.

18 November 2011

Defence analyst Anthony Tucker-Jones reports on how close Tehran is to war with the West

In recent weeks it has looked increasingly like the West is on a collision course with Iran. This would be a disaster for all concerned.

The cause for this is the mounting alarm is that Iran may only be a year away from possessing a nuclear weapon. Israel’s sabre rattling in response has become particularly strident, raising fears it may take unilateral military action.

The five permanent members of the UN Security Council have expressed “deep and increasing concern about unresolved issues regarding the Iranian nuclear programme, including those which need to be clarified to exclude the existence of possible military dimensions.”

A key area of concern is the Fordo enrichment facility, 30km north of Qom. Intelligence indicates Iran intends to shift much of its nuclear production to this old Revolutionary Guard missile site, secure beneath the mountains. The UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is expecting Fordo to commence enriching Uranium this year, and Israel may feel compelled to act before that happens.

To compound matters it has emerged that Washington and Tel Aviv are at loggerheads over Israel’s possible military intentions. Israel had made it clear that it is simply not prepared to warn America in advance of any strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, nor will it seek Washington’s permission first.

Leon Panetta, the US Defence Secretary, has stated that any military strike will only delay Iran for up to three years. In the meantime the Iranians will be lashing out in revenge.

The IAEA has said in its latest report on Iran’s nuclear programme that it suspects Tehran is conducting secret experiments with the aim of developing nuclear weapons. The European Union claims the report indicates a fully-fledged nuclear weapons programme. However, in line with the IAEA’s usual doublespeak the report is fairly woolly and has not explicitly accused Iran of building a bomb. Instead, the IAEA states it has information indicating Iran has conducted activities “relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device.” Just how relevant is the burning question.

Claiming the IAEA report endorses intelligence is spurious, as the report is inevitably informed by intelligence. Once again the IAEA simply continues to hedge its bets, while Russia argues the report ‘does not contain fundamentally new information.’

Israel’s top defence priority is stopping Tehran acquiring the bomb, and the Israelis clearly feel that unilateral action is rapidly becoming their only option. In some quarters, recent talk of an Israeli air strike is considered to be dangerous brinkmanship by Tel Aviv to force the international community to impose punitive sanctions against Tehran. Indeed, former senior Israeli military and intelligence officials endorse this view and are aghast at the prospect and consequences of attacking Iran.

Israel wants a ban on Iran’s oil exports and sanctions against the Iranian central bank – this is not going to happen. The reality is that within the UN Security Council the West will be unable to overcome objections by China and Russia, leaving military action as the only alternative. Indeed, Russia has already said fresh sanctions are “unacceptable.”

Worryingly, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has replaced all four of his senior military and intelligence chiefs who opposed military action. Their younger replacements will be much more amenable.

Israel’s ballistic missile programme means it could conduct missile strikes and avoid risking the Israeli Air Force. An upgraded Jericho 3 missile, able to hit anywhere in the Middle East, was test fired on 2 November. To make matters worse it is believed that the Jericho can carry a nuclear payload.

Possible targets include the suspected nuclear weapons development facility at Parchin, the heavy water reactor site at Arak, the Busheher nuclear power station, Gachin Uranium mine, the Uranium yellowcake conversion facility at Isfahan, the Uranium enrichment plant at Natanz and the Fordo enrichment facility.

There has even been talk of an attack before Christmas, but weather conditions indicate that next spring or summer would be more favourable. Behind the scenes, Washington will be working hard to persuade Tel Aviv not to act to this schedule.

Although the international community has been in this situation numerous times before, Iran seems incapable or unwilling to placate Western fears, as a result sooner or later something is going to give.

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