WarSclerotic

UN watchdog focuses attention on tackling Iran’s nuclear ambitions –

But publication of a report on Iran’s programme this week by the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN watchdog, will focus minds once more on how and when the Iranian conundrum will be resolved. Reuters over the weekend reported that the latest IAEA report will support allegations that Iran has built a nuclear weapons testing facility and some western diplomats expect it to be a “game changer.”

As they examine the possible outcomes to the standoff on Iran, western leaders know two would be appalling. If Iran were to test a nuclear bomb, Israel would believe it faced an existential threat from a sworn enemy. A successful Iranian atomic test would begin the next wave of nuclear weapons proliferation in the world as Gulf Arab states acquired their own atomic capability.

The US and Israel know the bombing of Iran’s facilities by Israel and/or the US would also be fraught with risk. Iran is capable of severe retaliation, launching ballistic missile attacks on Israeli cities. Moreover, it is unclear whether a US/Israeli attack on Iran’s heavily fortified nuclear sites could do more than delay the programme for a few years.

In the meantime, the third possible denouement – a diplomatic solution – is as far away as ever. Two years ago, Iran suggested it might do a serious deal on its programme that would prove it was peaceful. But a marathon round of talks in various capitals ended in stalemate.

At the start of this year, western leaders were prepared to live with that stalemate for a while. Several factors suggested Iran was still some way from testing a nuclear weapon. The global sanctions drive made it difficult for Iran to acquire key industrial parts. More significantly, Iran’s nuclear programme was sabotaged by Stuxnet, an internet worm almost certainly launched by Israel and which damaged its uranium enrichment facilities.

But the damage done by Stuxnet was no more than temporary. The US and its allies approach the end of the year with concern about the Iranian programme now rising on two fronts.

First, western diplomats believe this week’s IAEA report into Iran’s nuclear activities will be as close as we get to proof that Tehran wants a bomb. Those who have seen the report say there is no killer fact that points definitively to the construction of a weapon. But it details work on individual technologies essential for designing and detonating a nuclear device, including how to turn uranium into bomb fuel and how to cast conventional explosives in a shape that can set off a nuclear blast.

Secondly, Iran is increasing its ability to enrich uranium, a key component of a nuclear weapon. One worry is that Iran has recently started enriching uranium at concentrations that are very close to weapons grade. Also of concern is what is happening at a heavily fortified mountain site near the holy city of Qom. Iran announced four months ago that it is moving its most sensitive nuclear fuel production to this site which would be difficult to attack from the air.

The concerns are not yet at a stage to make a full-blown crisis imminent. The consensus among western experts is that Iran is still two years away from testing a bomb. The west’s next step will therefore be to ratchet up UN sanctions, forcing Tehran to the negotiating table.

But there is no guarantee that sanctions will succeed. Instead, what worries western diplomats is that after the delays and uncertainties of recent years, Iran now seems utterly determined to press ahead with its nuclear programme. There is still no telling which of the three denouements will end this story.

FT.com.

This entry was posted on November 6, 2011 at 4:40 PM and is filed under Uncategorized. You can subscribe via RSS 2.0 feed to this post's comments. You can comment below, or link to this permanent URL from your own site.