WarSclerotic

UN to reveal signs of Iran nuclear arms plan – FT.com.

The UN atomic watchdog will publish fresh evidence next week suggesting that Iran is seeking to build a nuclear weapon.

The International Atomic Energy Agency’s report will spell out in unprecedented detail the possible military dimensions of Tehran’s nuclear programme.

It is expected to unveil a significant amount of hitherto unpublished data showing how Iran may have worked on designing an atomic warhead in recent years.

Tehran has always insisted that its atomic programme is peaceful and that it is aimed at developing civil nuclear power.

However, western diplomats say the IAEA report will contain a significant level of detail on research and experiments carried out in recent years that point to evidence of a military programme.

At the Group of 20 summit in Cannes on Thursday, President Barack Obama referred to the significance of next week’s IAEA report. The US leader said: “The IAEA is scheduled to release a report on Iran’s nuclear programme next week and President [Nicolas] Sarkozy [of France] and I agree on the need to maintain the unprecedented pressure on Iran to meet its obligations.”

Mark Fitzpatrick, a senior fellow at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, said western powers were becoming increasingly alarmed by the progress Iran was making on its nuclear programme.

Iranian teams have recently begun moving centrifuge machines, which enrich uranium, into a mountain facility near the city of Qom. Once inside the mountain, the centrifuges are protected from attack by air strikes.

At its main enrichment plant at Natanz, Iran has installed about 200 advanced centrifuge machines that produce enriched uranium at a much faster rate than previous models. Iran is also continuing to accumulate stockpiles of uranium enriched with a 20 per cent concentration – a level close to weapons-grade.

“All these factors are giving Israel and western powers reason for concern,” said Mr Fitzpatrick. “Some analysts calculate that Iran could be just two months away from testing a bomb. I still think it is more than a year, although the more alarmist claims are getting publicity.”

Iran’s nuclear programme is a key topic of political debate in Israel, amid reports that the government is locked in serious talks over the merits of an Israeli-led air strike against Iranian nuclear facilities.

Citing unnamed officials, Israeli media say that Benjamin Netanyahu, the prime minister, is trying to muster a majority inside his cabinet in favour of military action.

The debate has been further fuelled by reports of an Israeli missile test and by news that Israeli fighter jets took part in an aerial exercise over Italy that reportedly simulated long-range air strikes.

However, none of the reports claimed that the government was close to ordering a strike on Iran.

Israeli analysts and officials note that Mr Netanyahu and his colleagues have long been worried that the international community is no longer paying sufficient attention to the Iranian nuclear programme.

The recent flurry of leaks and reports may be an attempt by the Israeli leadership to refocus diplomatic attention on the Iranian programme at a time when much of the developed world is preoccupied by the global economic crisis.

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