Decades of Impunity Explains Iran’s Terror Plot
Some argue that Iran’s Quds Force could not be behind the failed plan to kill the Saudi ambassador to the U.S. because they believe that the Quds Force is to skillful to fail in such an embarrassing way. The same group of people also claims that Iran has no real strategic interest in killing the Saudi ambassador in the US.
The reality is that Iran’s Quds Force is indeed well versed in killing its foes, but its skillfulness is greatly exaggerated. One of the reasons that Iran has been able to carry out assassinations and a wide range of terrorist operations all around the world – mostly through proxies – is because they have been able to do this with impunity.
During the 1980s and 90s, Iran was killing opposition figures, sometimes in a very clumsy way, all around the world and especially in Europe with impunity. We know now how different governments in Europe arrested Iranian agents involved in some of the attacks, only to release them later (in some cases even escorting the killers to airports) due to economic interests in Iran or fear of further terrorist attacks by Tehran. This brought about the belief in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard that they could continue to carry out these attacks without any repercussions.
The same line of thought is applicable to Iran’s proxy wars against Saudi Arabia, the U.S. and Israel. Iran, like any other state with expansionist objectives, will pursue its interest through means that it finds optimal. In the case of Iran, relying on proxies and terrorism has paid off. This is in major part because Iran has not been punished for using terrorism.
In the case of Saudi Arabia, Iran has done everything in its power to bring down the current regime. In 1987 Iran sent thousands Revolutionary Guard soldiers as “pilgrims” to the holy city of Mecca in order to stage violent protests. What many at the time thought were spontaneous clashes between Shi’a pilgrims and the Saudi authorities were in fact planned by the Revolutionary Guard.
In 1996, a terrorist group supported by Iran bombed the Khobar Towers, killing 19 U.S. servicemen and wounding 372. The Clinton administration and the Saudi government did not take any action against Iran. Therefore, when Iran has targeted Saudi and U.S. interests, American and Saudi inaction has emboldened Iran to continue using terrorism as an effective to further its interests.
The same goes for Israel. Iran’s support for Hezbollah, Hamas, and other extremist organizations, and its attacks on different Jewish communities around the world (for example the Buenos Aires bombing of a Jewish center), have gone unpunished.
The United States has not taken any serious actions against Iran, in spite of several terrorist attacks against U.S. interests perpetuated by the clerical regime in Tehran and its proxies. It all began with the U.S. embassy hostage taking in Tehran after the revolution in 1979 and has continued with Iran killing American soldiers in Afghanistan and Iraq most recently.
To clarify, Iran does not fear sanctions, attacks on its proxies (they can always find new ones), or even threats of “isolation”. Iran only fears regime change. Hence, everything else is interpreted as acceptable losses by the regime in Tehran. The only time Iran was willing to compromise with the United States was following the toppling of the Baath regime in Iraq. According to a secret proposal, Iran would end its support for terrorism, ends enrichment of uranium, and stop undermining the peace process between Israel and the Palestinians. In other words, only in the face of the Bush administration’s campaign of regime change was Iran willing to accommodate U.S. demands.
Thus, as to the argument that the Quds Force is to skillful to carry out such an amateurish operation, it might seem strange now but what if the Mexican drug cartel member was not an FBI informer, well then the attack might have been successful! Similarly, arguments about the arrested Iranian-American used cars-salesman and how he does not fit the profile of someone intelligent enough or capable of carrying out such an elaborate plan is just ridiculous in light of existing knowledge about individuals used by Iran in the past to carry out assassinations. One example is Iranian agent Kazem Darabi who was one of those involved in the assassination of the Kurdish leader Dr. Sadeq Sharafkandi in Berlin 1992. Darabi worked as a grocer in Berlin and was described by many that knew him as a man of limited intelligence.
Anyone with any insight in covert military and intelligence operations know that with sufficient resources and determination many intelligence agencies in the world could probably assassinate anyone on this planet. What makes Iran’s Quds Force different is that they will continue to try to carry out outlandish operations like the one on the Saudi ambassador because they do not believe that they will face any real repercussions.
WarSclerotic 
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