Turkey’s test with Syria
Abdülhamit Bilici: Turkey’s test with Syria.
Al Arabiya
Saturday, 25 June 2011
The good relations Turkey developed with Syria within the context of its advertised foreign policy goal of having zero problems with neighbors has evolved into a responsibility that is hard for Turkey to bear in the face of the recent developments haunting the Middle East.
On the one hand are the expectations of Syrian President Bashar Al Assad, with whom President Abdullah Gül, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu had established close relations going beyond official ties, and on the other hand are those of the Syrian people, who want freedoms, just like the people of Tunisia and Egypt. There is also Arab public opinion and the world. The warmer it becomes to demands for freedom, the more Turkey will distance itself from the Assad administration. Or conversely, the closer it stands to the Baath regime, the greater its loss of prestige will be, both in Western and Arab public opinion. Thus, Turkey faces a challenging multivariate cauldron. Indeed, Turkey’s opening its borders to Syrian refugees and calling on the Assad administration to speed up reforms and refrain from resorting to violence against innocent people has already made some believe that Turkey is part of a conspiracy against Syria. Feigning ignorance about how the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) had risked its ties with the West to side with Tehran at a most difficult time, the Iranian media have already started accusing Turkey.
Particularly Russia and China, who already regret backing the United Nations Security Council resolution to impose a no-fly zone in Libyan airspace, are not allowing a simple resolution to condemn Syria, which puts further burden on Turkey. Like the Assad administration, Russia and China see Syrian people’s demand for freedom as a Western conspiracy and justify the Syrian security forces’ intervention, which have claimed the lives of more than 1,400 people with reference to the state’s right to self-protection. Meanwhile, it should be noted that the official assigned by the UN Human Rights Council to report developments in Syria was not allowed to enter the country.
This means that if things get out of control in Syria, there will be no BM umbrella for an international operation, as seen in the case of Libya and as demanded by Turkey. A one-sided intervention lacking such international legitimacy will make things harder for Turkey. Therefore, Turkey must solve this crisis so as to eliminate the need for an international intervention. Any solution that leads to a separation of the country or a civil war along ethnic/sectarian lines will directly threaten Turkey.
How Turkey will perform with respect to Syria is seen as a test not only by the world, but also by the Arab public. “If Turkey, as a country regarded as a model with its democratic and economic reforms and emerging in foreign policy with its justified moves against Israel, is successful in Syria, it will pave the way for new opportunities for it in the Arab world,” says an experienced Lebanese politician who knows the new Turkey and the Damascus regime very well. Asked what Turkey must do in order to be considered successful in Syria, he replies, “Either ensure that the Assad regime implements reforms or makes a transition to democracy or offer Mr. Assad a safe exit door to facilitate the transformation of the regime.”
Noting that Mr. Erdoğan’s Syria policy so far has been welcomed and Turkey has apparently learned its lesson from the Libyan case, this pro-Turkey and reform-minded Arab politician also shares his views about the developments in Syria.
This is how Damascus is seen from Beirut, whose destiny has always been shaped by Damascus to a great extent, he says and highlights:
“Assad has four or five months. He has already lost the trust of his people and friends by failing to take necessary steps in a timely manner. It is very hard for him to win this trust back. The claim that Assad is essentially a reformist, but does not have the power to implement reforms is wrong. … There is still no clear indication of what the post-Assad Syria will be. But the new structure may be built on three core elements: liberals, the Muslim Brotherhood (MB), and the regular Syrian army, which still has not played a role in the incidents. … It is important that Damascus and Aleppo are still free from the waves of uprisings. I think they are waiting for the US, Europe and Turkey to tell Assad to go. This has yet to be said to Assad. … It seems that Europe and the US are ready to accept Turkey’s leadership and initiative about Syria. A regime change in Syria will not affect Lebanon adversely. Rather, a democratic Syria will further consolidate the stability of Lebanon…”
Let us hope that Syria, Turkey and the entire region emerge beneficial from this process.
WarSclerotic 
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