WarSclerotic

“No one in Israel likes the idea of attacking Iran. If you fail to stop Iran, someone has to do it,” said Maj.-Gen. Yaakov Amidror, who addressed more than 50 ambassadors and senior diplomats attending Bar-Ilan University’s fifth Ambassadors’ Forum last week.
He stressed that Israel is considering every non-military option possible in dealing with the Iranian threat.

“I’m one of those who think that the capabilities of Iran are less than what has been described. They have hundreds of missiles and Hezbollah. It’ll be a cruel war against the populated areas of Israel,” said Amidror, who served primarily in IDF intelligence for 36 years. “But maybe what should have been achieved in 2006 – destroying Hezbollah’s capabilities – will now be achieved. Now Lebanon is Hezbollah and Hezbollah is Lebanon. This is the great failure of the free world.”

Amidror mentioned obstacles that would make attacking Iran difficult: First is location. The 1,723-km. distance from Israel to Iran would require Israeli planes to refuel in midair or from another Arab country; in addition, Iran has spread its facilities throughout several locations and placed them underground, making an attack on Iran much more difficult than when Israel bombed Iraq’s Osirak reactor in 1981; another obstacle is that Iran would be able to rebuild after an attack because it already possesses the knowledge.
Ze’ev Maghen, a professor of Persian language and Islamic history, suggested a two-prong approach in coping with the Iranian challenge. On the one hand, he criticized the West, which he said must “wake up” from its misunderstanding of Iran and begin to respect Islam rather than mock it.

“We have to stop denigrating and ridiculing the very real statements being made not just in Iran, but elsewhere in the Muslim world, about the excesses of modernity. We must find a modus vivendi with them,” Maghen said. On the other hand, he agreed with Amidror that current sanctions against Iran won’t work if the world community doesn’t become more serious about them. Therefore, he argued, it might be better to drop the sanctions and bomb Natanz, where Iran’s central uranium enrichment facility is located.

“There is nothing disrespectful about bombing Natanz. Nobody’s religious tradition or even national honour will be genuinely offended by such an act,” said Maghen. “The international community must make it clear, by force if necessary, that any country that declares its intent to eradicate another political entity will not be permitted to develop nuclear capability.”

Prof. Gerald Steinberg, an expert in conflict management, said, “Nuclear Iran isn’t comparable to the Cold War situation; Iran must be stopped.”

He explained that “during the Cold War – even at the worst of times, such as the 1962 Cuban missile crisis – the US and Soviet Union had diplomatic relations and a basic understanding of each other’s ‘red lines.’ In contrast, Iran has no links to Israel and the mullahs who make decisions have no knowledge of Israeli ‘red lines.’”

When asked whether Israel’s rumoured nuclear capabilities would serve as a deterrent against Iran, Prof. Steinberg told the Jewish Tribune: “Nothing is automatic, particularly during a crisis. Most wars happen due to errors in decision-making and false assumptions about deterrence and military capabilities.”

Prof. Steinberg noted that Iran’s violations of the international nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) were well known for over seven years before the International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA) found Iran in non-compliance and the UN Security Council became involved, giving the Iranians time to develop their knowledge and make progress towards achieving nuclear capability.

“Clear evidence was available, but no action was taken,” said Prof. Steinberg, adding that despite this, he didn’t see former IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei as being entirely responsible for the IAEA’s failure to act with regard to Iran.

Prof. Steinberg said that Iran has to be stopped before restoring the NPT structure, which he called a success for the first 30 years.