WarSclerotic

After Mubarak (think Turkey, not Iran) – The Hill’s Pundits Blog.

The hysterical reaction here in Israel to the dramatic events unfolding in Egypt is predictably based on this country’s obsession with Iran, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warning all over the place that Egypt risks an Islamic takeover if President Mubarak goes.

Today’s Israeli newspapers are full of similar warnings about the Muslim Brotherhood, which remains the only organized opposition party in Egypt. But I would offer a different model: Don’t think Iran, think Turkey. In Ankara there is a stable, democratically elected pro-Islamic government with aspirations to join the European Union and where the army still sees itself as the guarantor of the secular state. Indeed, Turkey and Israel had friendly relations until the Israeli raid on the Turkish flotilla that tried to break the Gaza blockade last spring.

Under the Obama administration proposals for a transition laid down in The New York Times, the army in Egypt, which has always been the power behind the throne, would retain that control if the vice president, Gen. Omar Suleiman, were to lead a transitional government until fresh elections.

None of the Egyptians I spoke to in Tahrir Square or elsewhere in Cairo believe that the Muslim Brotherhood could command a majority in a fully democratic election. But on the other hand, everyone — including Suleiman himself — believes that the conservative Islamic movement has a role in Egyptian society and must be involved in the country’s future. Conventional wisdom has it that the Brotherhood would get 20 to 30 percent of the vote.

The people I spoke to were divided in their response after Mubarak went on television to announce that he would step down, but only in September. Some middle-class Egyptians were worried about a power vacuum if he went now. One woman at the airport in her late 20s said she cried when he said he would go. “He is the father of our country, he can’t leave us,” she said. Mubarak is the only leader she has ever known.

Others insist that he has lost his legitimacy and must go now. Among those demonstrating in Tahrir Square today was the head of the Arab League, Mubarak’s former foreign minister, Amr Moussa.

I remain hopeful that once Mubarak calls off the attack dogs who are now trying to blame foreign powers (read: Israel) for the chaos, there are plenty Egyptians capable of bringing democracy to their country in a way that will reassure the Israelis next door.

This entry was posted on February 5, 2011 at 12:20 PM and is filed under Uncategorized. You can subscribe via RSS 2.0 feed to this post's comments. You can comment below, or link to this permanent URL from your own site.