WarSclerotic

WPR Article | World Citizen: Arabs States Building Arsenal for War With Iran.

While Western diplomats and sanctions-enforcers ply their trade to pressure Iran into stopping its uranium enrichment, much of the Middle East is already preparing for war. Headlines might focus on United Nations resolutions initiated by Western powers, or on fiery speeches delivered by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. But just a few hundred miles from Tehran, the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf have launched a race to arm themselves with an urgency and intensity reminiscent of America’s defense build-up prior to its entry into World War II.

The magnitude of the weapons purchases is nothing short of astounding and the speed at which they are accelerating is breathtaking. Consider how fast the orders are growing: Gulf nations, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman and Kuwait, bought $37 billion worth of U.S. weapons in the last four years, with the majority of the purchases coming in just the last two years. And the deals already under negotiation for the next four years are expected to total $123 billion. Those numbers don’t include arms purchases from countries other than the U.S.

By far the largest component of the newly muscular Arab arsenal comes in one package deal for Saudi Arabia, approved by the White House and headed for approval by the U.S. Congress. The Saudi purchase, with an 11-digit price tag of $67 billion, is the biggest arms deal in history.

The Israelis are watching these developments with mixed feelings. While some have reportedly tried quietly to persuade the U.S. to limit the sales, many are taking comfort from the fact that these purchases are primarily motivated by concerns over Iran, the Arabs’ historic Persian rival and Israel’s avowed enemy. For weapons-procurement specialists in Israel, the feeling may just be envy. As generous as America has proven toward Israel’s military, the Israelis could never come close to ordering weapons with such a price tag.

But uneasiness still fills the air in some Israeli defense circles. After all, the Arab world is not exactly friendly toward Israel. And though the regimes currently going on an arms-buying spree might not consider attacking the Jewish state, they could lose power, leaving the advanced weaponry in the hands of unpredictable zealots. Speaking of Saudi Arabia’s massive new fighter jet order, one anonymous Israeli defense source told an Israeli journalist, “Today these planes are against Iran. Tomorrow they might turn against us.”

Washington has sought to allay Israeli concerns by reassuring the Jewish state that its technological superiority will not be threatened. In order to secure that qualitative edge, the U.S. will sell Israel 20 F-35 stealth fighter jets, which are much more advanced than the F-15s going to the Saudis. The Saudis, however, will have more than 150 F-15s.

Washington is happy to oblige its eager, oil-rich Arab customers. After all, the transactions strengthen the links between the U.S. and its Gulf allies in preparation for a possible confrontation with Iran. The lengthy shopping list brings a financial bonanza for U.S. defense contractors and creates employment in job-starved America. For American military planners, the arms build-up acts as something of a stage preparation in case a war with Iran starts. Every piece of modern U.S.-made equipment already positioned across the Persian Gulf from Iran is potentially one less piece the Pentagon has to deploy if there is a war. For diplomats, the arsenals help pressure Iran, potentially helping their efforts to negotiate a settlement. Beyond that, they add diplomatic depth to the relationships between Washington and its arms customers. Most of the weapons — including helicopters, fighter jets and missile defense systems — will require training and maintenance with major U.S. participation. This helps reinforce long-term ties in the alliance between the U.S. and members of the Gulf Cooperation Council, the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf.

By some accounts, the buildup has already altered the conventional weapons balance of power. In a speech in Bahrain, U.S. Gen. David Petraeus declared that even without the upcoming deliveries, the UAE “could take out the entire Iranian air force.”

While its Arab rivals arm, Iran has worked diligently to upgrade its own arsenal of conventional weapons, even as it pushes ahead with a nuclear program that the West and most of its neighbors believe aims to build atomic weapons. Iran has purchased at least $5 billion worth of arms from Russia in recent years, but Tehran’s patrons in Moscow are getting cold feet about their controversial customer. Last month, Russian President Dimitri Medvedev signed a decree banning sales to Iran of a long list of military equipment. The banned items include tanks, warplanes, helicopters, armored vehicles and, most importantly, missiles.

The decree voided a longstanding contract between Moscow and Tehran that would have provided Iran with S-300 anti-aircraft missiles, a weapon that would pose the greatest threat to an air attack by the U.S., Israel, or even an Arab country against Iran’s nuclear installations. Iranian authorities were fuming at the decision. Defense Minister Brig. Gen. Ahmad Vahidi declared that Russia “cannot be trusted.” Russia charged back, blaming the decision on Iran and its “flawed foreign policy.”

Despite Moscow’s limiting of sales to Iran, Russian weapons deliveries to Iran’s staunchest allies continue. Syria will receive deliveries of the Russia P-800 Yakhont anti-ship cruise missile, despite U.S. and Israeli concerns. Israel, in particular, which has vigorously opposed the deal since it was signed in 2007, worries about Damascus passing the weapons to Hezbollah, the Lebanese militia closely allied with Iran. Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov offered unpersuasive reassurances, saying that “provisions in the contract specifically bar Damascus from transferring these weapons to a third party.”

Perhaps the most direct, explicit, and detailed objection to the massive new wave of American arms sales to the Arab world came from the U.S. government itself. In a recent report (.pdf), the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) accused both the Obama and Bush administrations as well as Congress of being “careless” in approving the sales. U.S. law requires that the government demonstrate the weapons sales advance American foreign policy and defense goals. According to the GAO, no such determination was made in advance of the current sales. The GAO “questioned whether the deals really were in the national interest of the United States.”

GAO objections notwithstanding, the arms race in the Middle East has already escalated beyond anything seen in decades. Whether or not Iran ultimately acquires nuclear weapons, the region has already become an infinitely more dangerous place. The last time Iran and one of its Arab neighbors went to war, in the 1980s against Iraq, a million people lost their lives. The possibility of another such war is not theoretical: The Middle East is already preparing for it.

Frida Ghitis is an independent commentator on world affairs and a World Politics Review contributing editor. Her weekly column, World Citizen, appears every Thursday.

This entry was posted on October 14, 2010 at 6:48 PM and is filed under Uncategorized. You can subscribe via RSS 2.0 feed to this post's comments. You can comment below, or link to this permanent URL from your own site.