WarSclerotic

Will Israel Strike Iran? – Associated Content – associatedcontent.com.

Once again sources reportedly within or close to the halls of power in Israel and the U.S. are leaking that an Israeli military strike on Iranian nuclear facilities is practically imminent. The Atlantic recently went so

far as to report that such a strike is likely within the next 12 months. Assuming that some dramatic change in the behavior of the Government of Iran doesn’t take place, some are proposing that sometime after December we may well see an Israeli military intervention against the Islamic Republic.

In light of these reports, there are three critical questions that Western and Middle Eastern government leaders and intelligence analysts are likely grappling with. First, is an Israeli strike more likely now than in the past? Second, what would be the consequences, regional and global, of such a strike? And third, perhaps just as sobering a question as number two, what are the consequences of not reigning in Iranian nuclear ambitions, through military force or otherwise, over the course of the next 12 months?

The Reality for Israel:

Of all the enemies in the region, Iran likely concerns Israel the most. The apocalyptic rhetoric of President Ahmadinejad, coupled with Iranian interference in the region (such as supposedly providing arms shipments to Hezbollah), make Iran a clear and present danger in Israeli eyes. Add to this that Israel has rarely shied away from doing whatever it feels necessary to defend itself against nuclear threats (remember the raids on Osirak, Iraq in 1981 and a suspected nuclear weapons-related site in Syria in 2007). It is likely that few doubt that the will is there to conduct an offensive operation against Tehran. And given that Western suspicions of Iranian intent with its nuclear program seem to be supported, at least in part, by International Atomic Energy Agency declarations that recent Iranian uranium production is in violation of UN Resolutions, it is difficult to believe that Israel is planning for a peaceful resolution of the current crisis.

It is no secret that Prime Minister Netanyahu would rather that the United States step up and take the necessary steps to decisively remove the threat of a nuclear Iran. Reportedly, however, there is a growing belief that President Obama has no intention of invading another Middle Eastern country. In Israeli eyes, this reality further limits their available responses.

The Reality for the Arab World

No one in the Arab world wants a nuclear-armed Iran. At least, no one in the governments of the Arab nations. As recently as July, the UAE Ambassador to the US stated flatly “We cannot live with a nuclear Iran.” But in a potentially astonishing change in Arab attitudes, the 2010 Arab Public Opinion Poll indicates that not only do 57 percent of the poll respondents believed that Iran’s nuclear program is intended to develop nuclear weapons, but these respondents also believed this to be a positive thing.

If these poll numbers are even close to reality (and in their analysis of this poll the Washington Times does highlight some who were skeptical of the polling methodology), it should be taken as a warning. Rarely has the “Arab Street” been overly sympathetic to the theocracy in Tehran. Ethnic divisions (Persian versus Arab) and religious differences (Sunni versus Shi’a) have traditionally established a suspicious gulf between Iran and the rest of the Arab Middle East. If the bitter feelings towards Israel and the U.S. have metastasized to the point that Arabs are willing to live under the shadow of a nuclear Iran, then such solidarity could help unleash a much more unified uprising against Arab governments that are seen as giving tacit support to an Israeli strike against fellow Muslims.

Israel and the West need to look beyond a potential strike, to the aftermath of military intervention. Even assuming that the strikes are successful, and all major sites in Iran are destroyed or seriously degraded, what kind of world will exist afterwards? Among the most grim possibilities are a wider war, as Iran retaliates and begins to draw in the United States and the surrounding regional states; a unified Muslim (versus a unified Arab) uprising in the Middle East against Western interests; and economic seizures and crippling oil disruptions. Add to that the ever present threat of the overthrow of (relatively) friendly Arab governments (many of whom would delight in seeing Iranian power checked by Israel) and seeing them replaced with radical extremists just as dedicated to the destruction of Israel as Iran.

The options for dealing with Tehran grow more severe and potentially painful the closer the world moves to a nuclear Iran. The more Iran continues to play the same cat and mouse game that Saddam played before 2003, the more likely the world will face the same consequences, only this time potentially more severe.

This entry was posted on August 16, 2010 at 1:16 AM and is filed under Uncategorized. You can subscribe via RSS 2.0 feed to this post's comments. You can comment below, or link to this permanent URL from your own site.