WarSclerotic

The conventional wisdom tells us that the next war will most likely bring a sequel to the 2006 conflict that pitted Israel against Hezbollah across the Lebanon border. Talk that open hostilities are imminent, prompted by a series of troubling incidents, has become so pervasive that Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Abu Gheit found it necessary to send a calming message to the people of south Lebanon, saying, “No war is looming in the horizon.” But his words contained more than a balm to soothe frayed nerves. They also carried a warning to Hezbollah and its sponsors in Iran and Syria. In an interview with the pan-Arab newspaper Al-Hayat, Abu Gheit noted there would be no war with Israel, “as long as there has not been any operation to launch missiles or cross the border.”

Concerns about a renewal of the conflict extend beyond the Middle East. U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon is just one of the many people who have expressed fears that a new war could break out.

Efforts to calm worried Lebanese residents must compete with the work of tension-stoking regimes, who insist that Israel is all but ready for an all-out assault. The headlines in the Tehran Times on Tuesday, for instance, sounded the alarm: “Israel Preparing to Occupy Lebanon.”

Israel says it has no intention of occupying anyone and has tried to make sure that message gets out, even enlisting Arab interlocutors to pass the word to the Lebanese. At the same time, however, Israelis have expressed deep concerns about what Hezbollah — with the help of Damascus and Tehran — is doing across the border.

When the guns fell silent in August 2006, the ceasefire produced a barely sustainable status quo. Since then, UNIFIL, the U.N. peacekeeping force, has patrolled south Lebanon, seeking with mixed results to enforce U.N. resolution 1701, the agreement that stopped the fighting.

Nerves are now fraying, as a number of factors have converged to raise tensions. UNIFIL patrols have come under attack by villagers in south Lebanon repeatedly in recent weeks. In one of dozens of attacks, villagers throwing rocks injured one of the peacekeepers and took the soldiers’ weapons. In the space of just three days last week, more than 25 attacks took place, persuading U.N. officials in New York to suspend patrols.

U.N. officials say the violent interference with UNIFIL’s mission shows suspicious fingerprints. According to Michael Williams, the U.N. Special Coordinator for Lebanon, some of the incidents may have been spontaneous, “but some were very clearly organized.” In the wake of new international sanctions against Iran over its nuclear program, Hezbollah and Iran may be trying to show Israel, the United States and the West that they have the power to push the U.N. out of Lebanon and start trouble. Many of the attacks have targeted French peacekeepers, prompting French officials to conclude that Tehran is behind the scuffles as a reprisal for Paris’ support of sanctions against Iran.

U.N. Resolution 1701 required, among other things, the disarmament of Hezbollah. Instead of disarming, the militia has rebuilt and fortified its arsenal. Israeli intelligence believes Hezbollah now has 40,000 missiles, mostly short range. Israel has also accused Syria of providing Scud rockets to Hezbollah, a charge Damascus denies. But there is little doubt that Tehran and Damascus have been arming the group.

Clearly, the regimes in Iran and Syria, along with Hezbollah, have formed a triple alliance against Israel, the U.S., and the West.

In a widely publicized conversation between Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in February, Ahmadinejad told Nasrallah that “Israel should be dealt with once and for all.” Since then, Nasrallah has openly and repeatedly threatened to hit Israel’s main international airport outside Tel Aviv as well as other distant targets in the event of hostilities.

The U.N.’s Ban, reviewing the status of Resolution 1701 enforcement, confirmed that Hezbollah maintains “a substantial military capacity” in direct violation of the resolution. But Ban blamed both sides for violating the ceasefire agreement — in Israel’s case, for its surveillance overflights in Lebanese airspace. Ban also accused Israel of raising tensions when it accused Syria of passing Scud missiles to Hezbollah. Israel was reportedly “stunned” by Ban’s analysis, which seemed to characterize Israeli expressions of concern over Hezbollah’s arsenal and the Shiite militia’s upgrading of its weapons stockpiles as equally egregious violations.

Washington’s view is quite different. In congressional testimony, U.S. Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Jeffrey Feltman called Hezbollah “the most technically capable terrorist group in the world and a continued security threat to the United States.” Evidently, the U.S. and Israel are not sleeping well knowing Hezbollah is growing stronger. The Pentagon says Iran has contributed $200 million each year to rebuild Hezbollah’s strength beyond its 2006 capabilities. And just a few days ago, U.S. and Israeli officials said Iran has given Syria a highly sophisticated radar system that could alter the tactical equations regarding potential Israeli airstrikes against Iran and Hezbollah.

While both sides along the Lebanon-Israel border have indicated that they do not seek war at this time, the conditions are in place for another confrontation. If and when a new war starts, it could prove much more dangerous than the 2006 confrontation. This time, the war could more clearly become a proxy conflict for the clash between the West and Iran. And while Israel and Hezbollah would clash along the front lines, it is far from inconceivable that what starts as a proxy war could ultimately involve Syria, Iran, Hamas and perhaps some forces from the West — even the U.S.

If no other actors join the battle, the war would still likely escalate beyond the 2006 level. Military analysts in Lebanon say Hezbollah has fortified its positions in the northern part of the country, meaning that the fighting would quickly extend beyond the south. Since 2006, Hezbollah has also become much more integrated into the Lebanese power structure. So rather than a conflict pitting Israel against the Hezbollah militia, this war could easily become a confrontation between two sovereign governments, if not more.

No one knows when the next conflict will start, but those who fear another war in the Middle East are undoubtedly right to worry.

Frida Ghitis is an independent commentator on world affairs and a World Politics Review contributing editor. Her weekly column, World Citizen, appears every Thursday.