WarSclerotic

Despite government assurances that the drill is a yearly routine, political leaders in Lebanon and Syria have accused Israel of warmongering.

Whether by accident or design, the five-day exercise has fuelled speculation over a renewed military clash between Israel and Hizbollah, the Lebanese Shia group backed by Iran and Syria.

Israel’s northern neighbours are not alone in voicing concerns about the potential for more bloodshed. In recent weeks, Israeli politicians have repeatedly warned that the threat posed by Hizbollah’s rapidly improving arsenal is reaching a critical level.

They are particularly concerned about Syria’s alleged transfer of Scud missiles to Hizbollah. Damascus has denied passing on these weapons and there is, at least outside Israel, no consensus on whether Hizbollah has managed to obtain Scuds, which have a longer range and a bigger warhead than other weapons in its arsenal. Hizbollah, however, is estimated to have at least 40,000 missiles and rockets – and the capability to hit Tel Aviv and other Israeli population centres.

The menacing backdrop to this debate is Iran, the principal supporter of Hizbollah and the country whose nuclear programme is viewed as an existential threat by Israel.

Yet analysts and western diplomats say that a “summer war” between Israel and Hizbollah is unlikely – at least this year. Israeli military analysts point out that the last war in 2006, despite being widely seen as a military failure for Israel, succeeded in re-establishing the country’s power of deterrence. They add that Hizbollah is today thought to be more concerned about its position as a key force in Lebanese national politics.

Hizbollah has yet to retaliate for the killing of its top military commander in 2008, which it blamed on Israel.

Zaki Shalom, a professor of international relations at Israel’s Ben-Gurion University, says: “I think that Hizbollah has, since the war, behaved in a very rational manner.”

But Israeli officials have warned that the next war against Hizbollah would have catastrophic consequences not only for the Shia group but also for Lebanon as a whole.

Ehud Barak, the defence minister, made clear during his visit to Washington last month that Israel would hold the government of Lebanon “accountable” should the tensions with Hizbollah escalate further.

In Beirut, Hizbollah argues that its military build-up and Israel’s 2006 failures have given it the power to deter further Israeli military action. But Saad Hariri, the prime minister who is a political foe of Hizbollah but leads a national unity government that includes the group, appears to take the prospect of a new war seriously.

He has little influence over Hizbollah. So he has been lobbying western powers – his latest meeting was with Barack Obama, the US president, on Monday – to restrain Israel.

Officials and analysts in Beirut say that while war might not be imminent, the broader crisis in the region over Iran’s nuclear programme and the fact that Hizbollah is Tehran’s most important regional ally, could provoke a new confrontation.