WarSclerotic

In the days ahead, western diplomats will weigh every word in the final Iranian, Brazilian, Turkish communiqué looking for ways to evaluate whether its is sufficient to end or at least freeze efforts to obtain another UN Security Council resolution that hardens sanctions against the Islamic republic.

But I won’t do any such analysis of the text, rather I will leave it to those searching for faults that might allow Iran off (or on) the hook.

No such short statement will ever be sufficient to ensure serious long term verification of Iran’s compliance..

Neither is it meant as a substitute for the relevant parties getting their hands dirty on the details of any long term arrangements. Nor is it sufficient to defuse the political tensions between the US and Iran. Let alone satisfy Israel.

But it is an excellent declaration of principle.

And while the US and Israel have been making the most noise regarding Iran’s nuclear programme, its no longer up to them and their European allies to decide whether Tehran will satisfy its international commitments.

There are many new kids on the block, BRIC, IBSA and the likes of Turkey and Brazil.

Scepticism vs enthusiasm

The nuclear communique might have nuked US efforts to pass new sanctions against Iran at the UN Security Council.

Which raises much scepticism among Western diplomats who reckon Tehran is buying time, and in the process pulling the rug from under US diplomatic efforts to corner Iran at the UN.

Or, according to the enthusiasts, the agreement could be a window of opportunity to engage Iran and begin a comprehensive process that deals with outstanding issues, including a Middle East free of weapons of mass destruction and foreign invasions and occupations.

What is clear, is that the mediators have tried to model their communique on the recent Geneva agreement with Iran that was acceptable to the US and its European allies. This time, it will be harder for Iran to backtrack and harder for the US to bully Tehran.

Iran doesn’t have many enthusiastic friends that support its nuclear programme. And if it decides to turn its back to a deal with Turkey and Brazil, there will be little chance it could confront  a harsh set of new security council sanctions.

Middle states middleman

Speaking to foreign ministers Ahmet Davutoglu of Turkey and Celso Amorim of Brazil after their joint press conference in Brasilia last month, it was clear to me that they were particularly confident about the need for mediation and the categorical rejection of any escalation to the use of force.

As middle-size powers with no particular narrow agenda and rather good relations with the US and Iran, they make up the perfect duo for the sort of mediation needed between Iran and the US.

Their timing couldn’t have been better as both Iran and the US need a deal that allows them to climb down the tree.

During the Latin American-EU summit this week, Lula will make his diplomatic breakthrough central to the new multilateralism long desired by the EU. Spain which holds the rotating presidency of the bloc should be less sceptical than France.

Also the other BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) countries, whose leaders met in Brazil last month, are expected to support President Lula and Premier Erdogan.

No less important in this regard, is the enthusiastic support of IBSA (Brazil, India and South Africa) the three biggest and most powerful democracies in the south, who during last month’s summit rejected any escalation to sanctions or worse. Instead they advocated a serious diplomatic effort to resolve the standoff with Iran.

However, unless the new initative includes mechanism to defuse tensions beyond the nuclear enrichment issue, its hard to see how it could work in the medium-term if at all.

Sobering up in Washington

I am sure the Obama administration understands that if India, South Africa and Brazil reject, and China and Russia are cool to, new sanctions, it means they simply won’t work, let alone bite.

The administration’s first reaction was sober concern that sees the agreement as a step in the right direction, but still puts the onus on Iran to prove that its nuclear programme is strictly peaceful.

The same goes for its European allies who are playing hard ball after being left out.

Meanwhile, it’s hard to see how the US and its European allies could pass any new resolution in light of this week’s developments.

Brazil and Turkey are working in a new international climate where the West can no longer dictate sanctions. And they know it.

With the US heavy military deployment in Iraq and Afghanistan, and Europe consumed by its economic crisis, Brazilian and Turkish diplomacy should only be welcomed and encouraged.