WarSclerotic

Game change—Iran and Israel.

Events in the Iran – Israel confrontation over Iran’s uranium enrichment program and its potential to develop nuclear weapons have taken several interesting turns in recent days:
• Tehran has agreed to send the bulk of its nuclear material to Turkey, while declaring that it will expand its enrichment programs
• Iran conducted military maneuvers rehearsing possible aggressive actions in the Persian Gulf
• Iran showed off a growing arsenal of ballistic missiles
• The Russians publicly rebuked President Obama on his position on sanctions against Iran
• An Israeli retired General Officer said that Israel has the military capability to attack Iran’s enrichment facilities.
• An Israeli conducted simulation assumed that Iran had acquired nuclear weapons.

“After a final agreement is signed between Iran and the Vienna group, our fuel will be shipped to Turkey under the supervision of Iran and the IAEA,” a press spokesman for the Iranian foreign ministry told journalists on the sidelines of a conference of developing nations. “Then we will dispatch 1,200 kilograms [2,640 pounds] of 3.5% enriched uranium to Turkey to be exchanged for 120 kilograms [264 pounds] of 20% enriched uranium from the Vienna group.” The deal appears to build upon an IAEA proposal last year that was endorsed by the Obama administration and Western powers.

By the way of background the proposal presented to Iran last year which this announced agreement parallels was to send around 2,640 pounds of its low-enriched uranium to Russia to be further refined and afterward to France to be converted into 20%-enriched fuel plates for the Tehran Research Reactor. The compromise was to serve as a way of drawing Iran’s supply of nuclear material below the threshold for building a bomb and to create an atmosphere for a broader deal between the West and Iran.

The announced agreement has several pitfalls:
• Only a handful of countries have the capability to create the specialized fuel plates for the Tehran medical reactor, which is what Iran says their enrichment program was for.
• The deal could be threatened by factional battles within Iran’s domestic politics, where any apparent weakness in the face of Western powers is viewed as not representing the greatness that is Iran.
• The Obama administration could reject the proposal, because
• Turkey does not have the capability to enrich the uranium—maybe it will serve as a middleman for France, Russia or Brazil.

In preparation for such an agreement Iran threatened its neighbors in late April when its Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) conducted four days of military exercises in the Straits of Hormuz and Persian Gulf. The exercises signaled that Iran is prepared to close the shipping lane form the Persian Gulf if/when confronted by an attack. The exercises also showcased indigenously built materiel and equipment, including an array of missiles and a new fast attack craft. Drills were also run to simulate the firing of anti-ship and surface-to-surface missiles as well as two types of rockets. Four types of seaborne missiles were also tested.

Iran unveiled several new missiles and UAVs at the 2010 Army Day Parade, highlighting long-range ballistic missiles of the both solid and liquid propelled types. Iran also hinted on the existence of a new missile in its arsenal—a Russian S-300 ‘look-alike’. The system is definitely not the Russian S-300, but could be a derivative of the Chinese HQ-9 missile. These new missiles were probably meant to display Iran’s ability to target Israel.
The New York Times reported that the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov criticized President Obama for his position on sanctions for Iran. He warned the United States and other Western nations against imposing unilateral sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program. “Countries facing Security Council sanctions “cannot under any circumstances be the subject of one-sided sanctions imposed by one or other government bypassing the Security Council”, Lavrov was quoted as saying.

Israel is primed to wage war on Iran, a deputy to Prime Minister Netanyahu said in a rare break with the government’s self imposed silence, as foreign governments try to curb Tehran’s nuclear plans. Reportedly by its assaults on guerrillas in neighboring Lebanon and Palestinian territories, the Israeli air force had gained the techniques necessary for any future strikes on Iranian sites. Deputy Prime Minister Yaalon (a former armed forces chief) went on to say that: “There is no doubt that the technological capabilities, which improved in recent years, have improved range and aerial refueling capabilities, and have brought about a massive improvement in the accuracy of ordnance and intelligence. This capability can be used for a war on terror in Gaza, for a war in the face of rockets from Lebanon, for war on the conventional Syrian army, and also for war on a peripheral state like Iran.”

Finally, in a recent simulation in Israel: “Iranian deterrence proved dizzyingly effective,” Eitan Ben-Eliahu, a retired air force commander who played the Israeli defense minister, said in his summary of the 20-team simulation. The wargame saw Iran declaring itself a nuclear power in 2011 and the ensuing confrontations were by proxy, in Lebanon. In one, emboldened Hezbollah guerrillas fired missiles at the Defense Ministry in Tel Aviv. That was followed by U.S. and Israeli intelligence findings that Iran had slipped radioactive materials to its Lebanese cohort, to assemble a crude device. Neither move drew Israeli attacks. Instead, Israel conferred with the United States, which publicly supported its ally’s “right to self-defense” and mobilized military reinforcements for the region while quietly insisting the Israelis stand down to give crisis talks a chance. “As far as the United States was concerned, Israel was trigger-happy. It sought to use the Hezbollah (missile) attack as justification for what the United States was told would be an all-out war.”

These series of distinct events and reports tell stark story. The United States has lost its image as a power broker and protector of Israel. Both Israel and Iran are posturing while sending the same message. The US is not the player that it used to be. Iran is sending this message to show its dominance in the area and for domestic political consumption. Simultaneously, Israel is hinting at the ability to attack Iran while distancing itself from dependence on the US, which the simulation painted as weak and unresponsive.

It can be argued that the Iranian deal with Turkey may lower the temperature of the current debate and will definitely make sanctions impossible. However it contains all of the problems noted, that must still be addressed. Overall the Iranian desire to create what one of its clerics called the Islamic United States continues and needs to be addressed by policy makers in the Middle East and the rest of the world.

What do you think?

This entry was posted on May 18, 2010 at 4:16 PM and is filed under Iran / Israel War. You can subscribe via RSS 2.0 feed to this post's comments. You can comment below, or link to this permanent URL from your own site.