WarSclerotic

At the end of April 2010, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards’ Navy conducted three days of “Great Prophet V” exercises in the Persian Gulf. Hundreds of fast boats were deployed in what appears to be a rehearsal for Iran’s first wave of attackers against ships in the strategic Strait of Hormuz where 40 percent of the world’s oil passes. These are the same swarming boats that harassed U.S. Navy ships in January 2008. The fast boats may have been reinforced recently by Iran’s furtive acquisition of the Bradstone Challenger, the world’s fastest speed boat, which could now be cloned. Some of the speed boats are reportedly equipped with anti-ship missiles and torpedoes.The danger of small boats was proven when the USS Cole was hit in October 2000 in Yemen by a bomb-laden inflatable boat – an order of magnitude slower than the speed boats. Seventeen sailors lost their lives in the Cole attack.

During the Iranian exercise the Revolutionary Navy also interdicted and searched a French and an Italian vessel in the Strait of Hormuz for “environmental” checks.

On the eve of the Revolutionary Guard exercise, the Iranian Navy dispatched a reconnaissance plane to buzz the USS Eisenhower aircraft carrier. Although the plane came within 1,000 yards of the carrier and loitered for some 20 minutes, the plane was not challenged by the U.S. Navy.

Then on May 6, the Iranian armed forces began eight-days of war games, Velayat 89. Iranian aircraft patrolled the sea routes and escorted passenger and cargo ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s navy stepped up its operations in the Gulf, according to Iran’s news agency. “Passing ships were successfully checked by destroyers, frigates, special operation teams and naval commandos in line with the goal of establishing security and peace in transit routes bound for the Hormuz Strait and the Persian Gulf,” said Iranian Rear Admiral Qasem Rostamabadi.

The Iranian press also boasted of the test launch of a home-built anti-submarine torpedo fired from Iran’s home-built Jamaran destroyer (actually closer in size to a smaller frigate). Iranian ships and shore batteries are also well-equipped with anti-ship missiles, and Iran has made extensive use of anti-ship mines in the past.

Why is Iran girding for naval warfare to such a degree?

Because most of the world will not truck with Iran carrying out its threats to block the world’s major oil artery at the Strait of Hormuz. The 370 km Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (ADCOP) across the Arabian Peninsula from Habshan to Fujairah will bypass the Strait but it won’t be ready until next year. While the press focuses on the Iranian military exercises, uranium enrichment, and long-range missile development, the navies of dozens of countries have been quietly gravitating toward the Persian Gulf.

The American Fifth Fleet is based in Bahrain, across the Persian/Arabian Gulf from Iran, and is supported by the USS Eisenhower battle group. Earlier this year, 22 ships from the United States, Britain, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and France all participated in an 11-day naval exercise in the Gulf.

An interruption of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz would cause economic and social convulsions in the oil hungry West, especially the United States, which currently has no effective plan to address such a crisis, according to author Edwin Black. In his book, The Plan, Black details the strategic importance of the narrow Strait of Hormuz, and the likely result of an oil interruption for the U.S. should oil be cut off from the world by Iranian naval activity such as laying sea mines or otherwise attacking ship traffic. Black has called the Strait of Hormuz the “solar plexus of the industrialized world.”

To counter the threats of piracy to shipping near the Horn of Africa, ships from other nations, such as Australia and Japan, are often on patrol in the Gulf of Oman, Arabian Sea or Gulf of Aden — all within close range of the Persian Gulf.  In recent years, both the French aircraft carrier Charles De Gaulle and the British carrier Royal Ark have deployed to the region for combat in Iraq and Afghanistan.

If that’s not enough to worry Iranian defense planners, Israeli missile boats and submarines may also be on station close to Iranian shores. According to published accounts, Israeli warships have traveled through the Suez Canal from the Mediterranean to the Red Sea in recent months, on their way to the Persian Gulf, American analysts routinely express concern over Iranian threats to American and NATO forces in Iraq and Afghanistan, oil interests in the Arabian Peninsula, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and Israeli civilians within range of Hizbullah and Hamas missiles.

Given the Iranian array of threats that they blatantly project against Western interests, allied forces, ships, tankers and bases, it is only reasonable to assume that the allies are exploring an array of preemptive actions.

Perhaps it’s time to redirect the analysis of military threats, reverse the arrows, and report on the threats against Iran from naval forces in the region, from special forces based in Iraq and Afghanistan which border Iran, and from bases on the Arabian Peninsula.  Iran is a rogue state led by dangerous men, but it is not the ultimate bogeyman.  The long-awaiting “biting” sanctions against Iran have yet to be enacted, but in the meantime the specters of deterrence and military threats can be enhanced.

Lenny Ben-David is public affairs consultant and a former senior Israeli diplomat in Israel’s Embassy in Washington. He blogs at www.lennybendavid.com.