WarSclerotic

via Vail Valley Voices: Russia the fly in the ointment with Iran | VailDaily.com.

I’m not a foreign relations expert, but I can recognize a serious diplomatic problem when I see one. And the Iran nuclear crisis is a dangerous situation.

Russia has, for all intents and purposes, vetoed any serious sanctions by the United Nations against Iran. President Obama had hoped these sanctions would temper Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

The reason for Russia’s seemingly inane response to Iran’s efforts to build a nuclear bomb is historically motivated. The most significant American diplomatic achievement since World War II occurred during the Cold War when Ronald Reagan effectively caused the Soviet Union to dismantle itself.

Russia’s ultimate ruler, Vladimir Putin, a one-time KBG chief and die-hard nationalist, has been dreaming about the old days when his country regularly interfered with American global leadership.

Spurred economically by a spike in oil prices, Putin decided to assert Russian influence even while pretending to be an ally of George W. Bush, and now Barack Obama. Higher oil prices filled Russian foreign exchange coffers, giving Putin a false sense of economic prowess. He responded by causing problems in nearby former Soviet provinces.

But now, Russia is ready for prime time. Even after serious conversations with American diplomats about a proposed anti-missile defense system in Eastern Europe and assorted other less important issues, Russia has openly defied an effort by Obama to build a consensus against Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

The illogic of this decision is overwhelming. Why would Russia condone the development of a nuclear weapon by one of its most unstable neighbors, which happens to be ruled by a maniac who is responsible to a group of religious zealots intent on destroying Israel?

Some have said the reason is economic in that Russia has several important projects under way in Iran. That may be partially true, but Iran’s proximity to former Soviet provinces and Russia should be the most important consideration. If a war breaks out, bombs will be exploding dangerously close to Russian soil.

Is Putin prepared to look the other way just because he wants to take on the U.S. diplomatically? What are the odds that Iran ultimately produces a nuclear weapon? I put them at zero, but not because the U.S. will invade Iran (Americans wouldn’t support another war in the region).

Rather, Israel won’t allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon. Israel’s leaders look at this situation as a matter of life and death for their country. The reaction to an Israeli strike wouldn’t be what some might think. Not one Arab country really believes that a nuclear Iran is in its best interests.

Superficial outrage to an Israeli strike would be prevalent, but I believe most Arabs would be relieved if Iran were to be neutered. And keep in mind that Iran stands ready to use its might and influence against Sunni Arab regimes.

So you can just imagine how Saudi Arabia (a Sunni regime) feels about this situation. Israel will attack because it has no choice. Its intelligence is second to none (so it will know when a deliverable bomb has been developed); it has the conventional firepower to destabilize Iran’s nuclear program; and no country will act against Israel, not even Russia.

Russia is playing a dangerous diplomatic game by not supporting the U.S. effort to thwart Iran’s nuclear program. All nations should work together for a peaceful settlement of this crisis.

But Russia, for glory’s sake, may make a peaceful reconciliation impossible.

Sal Bommarito is a novelist and frequent visitor to Vail over the past 20 years.

This entry was posted on January 7, 2010 at 8:31 AM and is filed under Iran / Israel War. You can subscribe via RSS 2.0 feed to this post's comments. You can comment below, or link to this permanent URL from your own site.