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A Diplomatic Tumult

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RANIAN OFFICIALS SAID THEY WILL SUBMIT A COUNTERPROPOSAL to the P-5+1 plan on Iran’s nuclear enrichment program on Thursday. Tehran clearly hopes that the counterproposal and ensuing negotiations will buy it time, but a number of forces appear to be shifting on the global stage that might change Iran’s calculus.

For one thing, U.S. National Security Adviser Gen. James Jones was in Moscow on Wednesday, and the future of Iran was one of the items up for discussion. Jones came to Moscow with a clear message: As far as the United States is concerned, all options are on the table with regard to Iran. So far, Moscow has not considered U.S. threats of military action against Iran and its nuclear program as legitimate (and has quietly laughed at the idea of sanctions). But the arrival of such a power player with this message could change Russia’s calculations.

Backing Jones up on Wednesday was Israeli opposition leader and former Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, who carried the same message to Moscow. Israel, too, considers all options to be on the table, and long has expressed the view that imposing additional sanctions against Iran would be meaningless. But Israel also sent a very clear message to Moscow by having Defense Minister Ehud Barak meeting with leaders in Central Europe — driving home the message that the Israelis know how to prod the Russians where they are most tender. There is no shortage of players hostile to Moscow along Russia’s Western periphery, and Israel easily could supply weapons to Europe, should it be so inclined. Israeli diplomatic moves were not limited to Russia, however: Israel and France also engaged in talks on Wednesday, and the situation with Iran was discussed.

Meanwhile, in the Mediterranean, the United States and Israel are conducting their largest and most complex bilateral ballistic missile defense exercises — exercises that were uncharacteristically delayed by a week before they started.

On the domestic front, word has reached STRATFOR that the government is laying the groundwork to permit the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to be tapped. The SPR, which sets aside more than 700 million barrels of crude oil, was designed expressly to keep the country running in the event of a war in an oil-producing region.

With all of these processes in motion, it is clear that a great deal of preparation is taking place. The Israelis have made it clear that they have no use for a soft approach to Iran, but they need the United States on board. The Americans would prefer to avoid taking military action against Iran — the impact on oil prices and the fragile global recovery would be profound — but Washington cannot possibly make gasoline sanctions work if Russia refuses to cooperate. But Moscow has more leverage than just the threat of breaking sanctions. For years, Russia has threatened for years to sell S-300 strategic air defense systems to Iran, a move that would greatly complicate any air strikes against that country.

With so many players pursuing their disparate aims, there is no single clear outcome that we are prepared to predict. There is clearly pressure building on Iran, but there appears to be a lack of clarity among the actors as to who is capable and willing to do what. From our perspective, it appears that all options — including military action – truly might be under consideration by the United States. It is not yet clear that Iran has adjusted to this, but talks between Washington and Moscow are certainly not a comforting thought to Tehran.

For the moment, it is unclear which statements and actions amount to posturing, and which indicate intent. Nor is it clear where the tripwires lie. This means that we must watch and wait for the next whiff of intelligence. For the countries in play, it means that the negotiations are exceedingly complex, and that the chance of miscalculation is high.

This entry was posted on November 1, 2009 at 9:24 AM and is filed under Iran / Israel War. You can subscribe via RSS 2.0 feed to this post's comments. You can comment below, or link to this permanent URL from your own site.