WarSclerotic

By Yossi Melman

Intelligence experts in the West and in Israel assumed for some time that a country that is seeking to acquire nuclear weapons would also develop a secret installation for enriching uranium so that it could hide its activities from the international community.

At such an installation, it would then be able to enrich uranium to a sufficiently high level that it would be usable as fissile material in a nuclear bomb. Indeed, what has taken place over the past few days has been the realization of those estimates, with Iran announcing that it had in place an additional installation for uranium enrichment, beyond the one the inspectors of the International Atomic Energy Agency were aware of in Natanz.

Iran’s announcement was made so as to preempt the news first being released by the media or foreign governments. However, Iran made no real gain with its admission. On the contrary, it has only aroused additional suspicions regarding its plans, incensed the international community, and embarrassed its few supporters. Even Russia, which has to date backed Iran and prevented the imposition of harsh sanctions against Tehran, appears to be losing patience.

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Iran’s timing was especially bad, with the announcement about the Qom facility coming only days before the scheduled October 1 start of talks in Geneva with the permanent members of the Security Council and Germany. Those talks are intended to resolve the issue of Tehran’s nuclear program. The announcement also came a short while after the IAEA’s annual meeting, just after the UN General Assembly gathering, and on the day the G-8 met in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. In all settings, Iran was topped the agenda.

The announcement resulted in a demand from the leaders of the U.S., France and the United Kingdom that Iran allow international inspectors to enter the site at Qom. Iran confirmed that it intends to do just that and is trying to calm things by saying that only low-level enrichment took place at the facility, just like at Natanz – intended for the peaceful purpose of producing electricity.

But the world is now finding it difficult to believe a regime that has in the past been caught lying more than once. According to Tehran, the newly publicized installation is small, and can house only 3,000 centrifuges, which are too few for industrial production. This, coupled with Iran’s efforts to highlight the activities at Natanz while constructing a secret facility, leads to only one conclusion: that they were planning to use the installation to produce highly enriched uranium for military use.

If Iran does agree to let IAEA inspectors into the site, it will have to build a third enrichment facility – although there may already be one in place. Which raises a major question: How many other secret sites does Iran have for the production of the essential elements for its nuclear program? This is a question of particular importance to the military planners who are considering a military option against Iran.

Some analysts have said that the installation at Qom is the “smoking gun” that proves, beyond doubt, that Iran is seeking to develop nuclear weapons.

Nonetheless, global political interests do not seem to be any closer to converging on how to deal with Iran and its nuclear program. Meanwhile, Iran is getting closer to its goal of being in a position to produce nuclear weapons.

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1117289.html

This entry was posted on September 29, 2009 at 8:51 AM and is filed under Iran / Israel War. You can subscribe via RSS 2.0 feed to this post's comments. You can comment below, or link to this permanent URL from your own site.